Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) this week predicted his Republican primary battle to retain his Texas Senate seat would end in a runoff election with state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Cornyn, Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) are engaged in a bitter three-way battle to win the March 3 primary. Cornyn said this week that he expected the primary to head to a runoff between himself and Paxton, given that it appears highly unlikely any candidate can win the tight race outright. Ahead of the November general election, the incumbent senator warned that Paxton’s “baggage” risked handing the “very competitive” race to Democrats, giving them the first blue U.S. Senate seat in the state in decades.
“There’ll be a 10-week runoff between me and the Attorney General. Unfortunately, the Attorney General’s got so much baggage and corruption in his wake that he will jeopardize keeping the seat red in November,” Cornyn said during a Fox News interview.
On the Democrats’ side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) and state Rep. James Talarico are engaged in a similarly raucous battle to win their party’s primary. Cornyn said this week that whoever emerges as the primary victor “absolutely” holds a chance of winning the seat.
“It has been and will be a very competitive race,” he said. “We haven’t elected a Democrat since 1994. But this would be the first crack in the red wall, and unfortunately, that’s what is being put at risk as a result of the baggage that Ken Paxton brings to this race.”
Republican leaders say they are running “against history” to retain their razor-thin majority in the Senate ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Washington Examiner earlier this month that he viewed Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska as likely containing the most competitive seats Republicans are defending.
Though Scott did not name Texas, Democrats are still eying it as a potential pickup seat.
President Donald Trump has held out on endorsing any candidate ahead of the GOP Texas primary, a move some suggest gives Democrats an advantage.
“Cornyn is a reasonable Republican, and now that would be money in the bank. But now I don’t know why politically — I’m not sure why the Republicans and the president wouldn’t sit on that and just lock down Texas,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) said during a recent interview on Fox Business Network’s Mornings with Maria.
Trump said earlier this month he couldn’t make a decision on the race because he’s friendly with all three candidates.
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“They’ve all supported me. They’re all good, and you’re supposed to pick one. So, we’ll see what happens, but I support all three,” the president said. “I just haven’t made a decision on that race yet. It’s got a ways to go.”
A polling average from Decision Desk HQ shows Paxton roughly 1 point ahead of Cornyn in the Republican primary, with Hunt trailing by about 14 percentage points.