With control of Congress and several key governorships at stake, the 2026 midterm elections are already shaping up to hinge on a relatively smaller number of battleground states.
With hundreds of seats on the ballot across the country this November, certain House, Senate, and gubernatorial races could flip seats and state control.
Here’s a look at the contests that could decide the balance of power, organized by state.
Arizona
Democrats are targeting Arizona’s 1st Congressional District as a seat they’re ready to flip, as it has been held by Republicans. The seat is open as Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) sets his sights on the governor’s seat.
The 6th District seat is also considered a toss-up, as the district picked Trump by less than a point. Incumbent Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) is facing a stiff battle with democrat front-runner JoAnna Mendoza, who outfundraised him early in the race.
Gov. Kattie Hobbs (D-AZ) is up for reelection in Arizona, and the state has oscillated between parties in federal and statewide races.
Arizona voted for both parties in recent presidential elections, and Republicans have fielded prominent challengers, including Reps. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Schweikert in the primary.
Polling shows Hobbs holds just a +1 advantage over two of her three Republican challengers. There are no other Democrats seeking the governor’s candidacy besides Hobbs.
Georgia
Although President Donald Trump won in Georgia in 2024, former President Joe Biden carried the state by less than a point in 2020.
The race for the Senate seat held by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who is seeking reelection after narrowly winning in 2021, has been rated a toss-up. Republicans view this as one of their top pickup opportunities, and a GOP win would flip the seat from blue to red.
While Trump’s presidential victory in the state signals a decent amount of Republican voters, the GOP field is packed full of candidates challenging Osoff, who has a staggering $25.5 million in cash on hand.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has a record of overperformance, including a surprising 2020 win, but she represents the only GOP Senate seat in a state that typically leans toward Democrats in presidential elections.
With Democrats controlling most statewide offices in Maine, Collins is vulnerable despite her personal brand of crossover appeal. Collins’s leading challenger, Janet Mills, steps ahead +1 in most polls.
Michigan
Michigan’s Senate seat is open with Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) retiring, creating one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable defenses in the Midwest. Michigan narrowly backed Trump in 2024 after supporting Biden in 2020.
Republicans are motivated to flip the seat, and multiple credible candidates on both sides make the primary and general election fluid.
The 7th District in the state is up for grabs in 2026, a district that has voted for the Electoral College winner in the presidential election for the past five cycles.
Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) is seeking reelection in the district, and he is sitting neck and neck with Democrat Curtis Hertel.
The governor’s race is also open in Michigan, as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) cannot seek reelection due to term limits. An open executive race in a presidential swing state has turned GOP heads as an opportunity to flip state control.
Michigan’s mixed partisan control, with Democrats holding statewide offices while Republicans control the state House, makes this an inherently competitive open race in a swing state.
North Carolina
North Carolina’s Senate race is also open, placing another purple state at the center of the fight for Senate control. The state narrowly favored Trump in 2024 but remains highly competitive.
Trump endorsed Michael Whatley for North Carolina’s Senate seat, challenging former Gov. Roy Cooper, who is seen as a strong Democrat statewide name. Cooper leads in the polls against Wheatley, who could flip the seat held by retiring Thom Tillis (R-NC).
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Nevada
In Nevada, Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) is defending his seat in a state that flipped for Trump in 2024, but his challenger, Attorney General Aaron Ford (D-NV), ties with him in the polls. Both candidates are drawing on their law enforcement experience to chase a chance in the general election.
Wisconsin
The gubernatorial race in Wisconsin has been rated as a toss-up as candidates look to fill the seat left open by retiring Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI).
The state flipped for Trump in 2024, and Republicans are looking to flip it again at the gubernatorial level.
Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) leads the polls in the field of Republican candidates, while former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes leads the Democratic field. Polls showing which party is ahead place Republicans at +3, suggesting a possible GOP lead in the general election.