The Trump administration has escalated its pressure against Cuba’s communist government, curbing oil supplies and threatening tariffs on countries that continue to ship fuel to the island as part of an effort to force regime change.
Since the United States captured former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro in January, the Trump administration has turned its focus on Cuba.
The relationship between Cuba and the United States has been difficult for nearly seven decades, following Fidel Castro’s communist revolution in 1959.
The slate of punitive trade policies adopted to punish the toppling of the U.S.-backed government by Castro has fluctuated diplomatic relations over the decades.
Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden made significant efforts to relax trade sanctions against Cuba, hoping to coax the declining island into better relations with the U.S.
President Donald Trump, however, has escalated trade penalties against the Cuban government, branding the entire island a national security threat due to alleged links to drug cartels, terrorist groups, and hostile intelligence agencies.
His administration is now twisting the arm of the Cuban regime in ways that seem impossible for it to escape without entirely undercutting its own legitimacy.
Trump has imposed sweeping sanctions that not only uphold fuel embargoes but also implement tariffs against foreign governments supplying oil to the island.
This move comes as Mexico became Cuba’s main source of oil following the capture of Maduro, which stopped shipments of Venezuelan oil to Havana.
Last year, Venezuela was Cuba’s largest oil supplier, providing 26,500 barrels per day, followed by Mexico, with some 5,000 bpd.
But Leftist Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced earlier this month that her country has no plans to resume oil shipments to Cuba, essentially buckling under Trump’s tariff threats.
“It’s currently on hold, and we are seeking to avoid any negative impact on Mexico and, as always, to find the best diplomatic solution for Cuba to receive the fuel,” Sheinbaum said at the time.
Jeff Vaden, a partner at Bracewell, told the Washington Examiner that sanctions and export controls are common tools used across many administrations to advance U.S. strategic goals.
Still, Vaden said the pressure on Cuba could be part of a broader U.S. strategy, particularly as it relates to changing Venezuela’s government.
He noted that Cuba and Venezuela have maintained a long-standing relationship in areas such as intelligence and training. He added that Cuban officials have held senior positions within Venezuela’s intelligence community.
Vaden said the administration’s approach, in part, is “a way to isolate Venezuela, to try to affect change in either policy or regime change in Venezuela.”
“Venezuela has, obviously, the largest reserve of oil in the world. It sends all to Cuba in exchange for things like medical doctors, training, and intelligence support. So if you can cut off that flow to Cuba, not only does it hurt Cuba on the commodity side, but it hurts Venezuela as far as getting the aid assistance from Cuba that comes back,” he said.
The Trump administration has plans to sell Venezuelan oil and control the proceeds.
Regardless, the fuel shortage in Cuba has become dire, leading to blackouts across the country, including in the capital, Havana, and affecting food prices and transportation.
It was reported earlier this week that trash has begun to pile up in Havana as trash trucks lack fuel to operate.
Paolo Spandoni, an associate professor at Augusta University, told the Washington Examiner that “Cuba is going toward a situation of collapse, because definitely there’s not much oil left, by any account.”
Spandoni noted that the Cuban economy was in crisis even before these latest developments.
He added that Cuba produces less than half of the oil it needs to generate electricity, and that its energy infrastructure is aging. Cuba has promoted a renewable energy program, but it is still far from meeting the country’s needs.
“That’s why, for the time being, they were living off supplies coming from Venezuela, from Mexico, and other countries, trying to generate electricity,” Spandoni said.
The United Nations has denounced the consequences of the fuel shortage stemming from these policies, which have compromised everything from food production to medical care to waste disposal.
“The U.S. executive order imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba is a serious violation of international law and a grave threat to a democratic and equitable international order,” experts at the United Nations Office of Human Rights proclaimed last week.
Unfortunately for Cuba, its diplomatic allies cannot provide the oil reserves needed to keep the island running. And aside from the UN, its strongest advocates are not of the type that will convince the Trump administration that it poses no threat to American interests.
The Kremlin is among Havana’s most outspoken defenders, repeatedly issuing statements denouncing the U.S. pressure as illegitimate and counter to the island’s right of self-determination.
“This is a special period, with new sanctions. You know how we feel about this. We do not accept anything like this,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla.
“We have always been on Cuba’s side in its struggle for independence, for the right to follow its own path of development, and we have always supported the Cuban people,” the Russian leader continued. “We know how difficult these past decades have been for the Cuban people as they have fought for the right to live by their own rules and defend their national interests.”
Russia is not in the best position to aid Cuba at the moment, as its yearslong invasion of Ukraine continues to eat up national resources and energy output.
Additionally, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is rumored to be making behind-the-scenes contact with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro, a Cuban general, former national leader, and brother of Fidel Castro.
Contact with the younger Raúl Castro, who does not hold any formal leadership position, seems to signal belief that his grandfather still holds significant sway post-retirement.
It would be a surprising development, given that the regime maintains there has been no communication with U.S. leadership, except for occasional “exchanges of messages.”
“There is no high-level dialogue between the government of the United States and Cuba,” the regime has stated. “There is not even dialogue at an intermediate level.”
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A White House official told the Washington Examiner earlier this week that the embargo remains in effect.
“The President is addressing the depredations of the communist Cuban regime by taking decisive action to hold the Cuban regime accountable for its support of hostile actors, terrorism, and regional instability that endanger American security and foreign policy,” the official said.