Last December, the Trump administration announced the largest arms sale to Taiwan in history: an $11 billion weapons package that included everything from drones and Javelin missiles to the HIMARS rocket systems. The sale, which still needs to be formally submitted to Congress, provided Taiwanese officials with a bit of relief. After all, Trump has often sounded ambivalent about whether he would support the island’s defense amid escalating Chinese aggression.
Now, however, Trump’s Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April has put a wrench into the original plans.
The Trump administration is reportedly discussing whether to delay the $11 billion sale in order to preserve a high-stakes meeting with the Chinese leader. The case for pushing through the arms package is compelling. While unifying the self-ruled democratic island with the mainland has been a core policy goal of the Chinese Communist Party ever since it emerged victorious in the 1949 Chinese civil war, Taiwan holds special resonance for Xi.
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China’s urgent military modernization drive reflects that interest. Xi has reportedly told the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. And there’s no question that Taiwan is vulnerable. Late last year, the PLA conducted another war-game simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s main ports. Chinese cyberattacks are now a daily part of life for the Taiwanese, as are the incessant breaches of the Taiwan Strait median-line by PLA fighter and bomber aircraft — an action that was extremely rare only a few years ago. Approving the U.S. weapons sale would help to bolster Taiwan’s defense and signal American support of that interest.
Yet there are also legitimate arguments in favor of at least delaying the arms sale.
The White House is clearly concerned that Xi could postpone the April summit in retaliation, which would not only be a dent to Trump’s personal prestige but complicate an extension of last October’s trade truce. While that agreement didn’t solve the systemic economic and financial issues that have plagued the U.S.-China relationship for the past decade, it did at least chip away at the problem. Under the deal, China agreed to loosen restrictions on rare earth exports for one year, buy more soybeans from U.S. farmers, and take more aggressive action against producers of fentanyl precursors. The U.S. agreed to lower tariff rates on Chinese products, delay further export restrictions, and put on hold the extra fees Chinese ships would have to pay as they docked in U.S. ports. Overall, the deal was designed to give the two sides breathing space for negotiations on a more comprehensive accord.
Trump hopes to use the April summit to extend this truce for another year. This is particularly urgent as the midterm elections approach. American cost-of-living issues will likely be the main voting concern. The last thing the Trump administration wants is more economic instability with China.
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In addition, the Trump administration is far more interested in a detente with Beijing than it was during its first term. The U.S. National Defense Strategy talks about concentrating on strategic stability and de-escalation and creating a status-quo in East Asia that everybody, including China, can live with. This becomes easier when the top leaders are on good terms.
In assessing whether to proceed with the U.S. arms package to Taiwan, Trump will have to figure out what’s more important to him: stabilizing ties with a great power or boosting the democratic island’s self-defense capabilities.