California Democrats will head to their state convention on Friday facing a defining question: Can the party unite in a post-Gov. Gavin Newsom world, or are they barreling toward an ugly, splintered primary that could jeopardize their grip on the governor’s race?
Thousands of California Democrats are expected to attend the multiday event in San Francisco, where they will be courted by gubernatorial candidates and finalize plans for the June 2 primary and the Nov. 3 general election.
Newsom, who is term-limited and eyeing a 2028 presidential run, is expected to skip the in-person event. Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris were also no-shows at last year’s gathering in Anaheim, with Newsom citing a scheduling conflict and Harris sending a three-minute recorded video message that drew tepid applause. Their absences left some delegates fuming, saying they left the conference with more questions than answers about the party’s direction after a disastrous 2024 election cycle.
This year, as party leaders and members get ready to gather in Northern California to weigh endorsements in high-profile federal and statewide races, the wide-open governor’s contest is emerging as the marquee battle.
There are nearly a dozen contenders in the race and no clear consensus candidate, setting up a test of influence for party insiders and a scramble for momentum ahead of the June primary. The open political landscape has left hopefuls jockeying for position and trying to build coalitions. Early alliances are forming, but no single contender has emerged as the front-runner, raising the stakes for every endorsement and public display of support at the convention.
The large group of Democrats in the contest has split the state’s liberal voters, leaving two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, near the top of almost every primary poll.
“In almost any other race, you’d look at a field like this and celebrate it,” Andrew Koneschusky, founder of Beltway Advisors, told the Washington Examiner. “The challenge is that California’s nonpartisan primary system turns a vibrant field into a liability. All candidates run on the same ballot and only the top two advance to November, regardless of party. Right now, you have nine serious Democrats splitting roughly 60% of the vote while two Republicans are consolidating the other 40%. The most likely outcome is still a Democrat advancing, but unless the dynamics change, there’s a small chance two Republicans finish in the top two in the most Democratic state in the country.”
If a Democrat does make it to the final showdown, which is likely despite early polling numbers, they would be the heavy favorite to beat any Republican that makes it to the general election. California has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, and the most recent poll shows the left-leaning party with a 20-point advantage over Republicans.
The crowded field of Democratic contenders includes Rep. Eric Swalwell; former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra; former Rep. Katie Porter; billionaire Tom Steyer; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; former state controller Betty Yee; California State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond; former state lawmaker Ian Calderon; and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
Mahan, Steyer, Swalwell, Thurmond, and Yee are expected to set up booths at the conference, making their case directly to delegates and zeroing in on key donors.
Koneschusky noted that even if the gathering does not result in a party endorsement, it will offer telling signals about the direction Democrats are poised to take.
“The threshold is too high, and the field is too crowded for any one candidate to get there,” he said. “But the endorsement vote tallies are public and will provide some sense of directionality, even if the convention doesn’t produce a formal endorsement. Beyond the vote itself, the energy in the room, how delegates respond to individual candidates, and the private conversations happening on the margins all provide a read on where this race is heading.”
Jeff Le, former deputy Cabinet secretary to Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown, told the Washington Examiner there has not been a governor’s race this wide open in recent memory.
“Both the part activist wing and leadership class have significant might in shaping candidate fortunes, but not enough muster to clear the field completely,” he said. “No one candidate had had a breakthrough moment to justify a coronation to the governor’s office as the party still reels from the 2024 loss from one of their own.”
He added that as candidates have received endorsements and money across a wide swath of donors and political players, it’s clear that the likelihood of a unifying effort is “losing steam.”
Lance Christensen, vice president of governmental affairs at the California Policy Center, told the Washington Examiner that Democrats have no one to blame but themselves.
“California Democrats don’t have a clear leader because their two top elected officials, Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have spent the last four years appeasing radicals in their party rather than do the hard part of governing in the middle,” he said. “The reason that there are so many Democrats in the governor’s race arises from the fact that they haven’t come to grasp how incompatible their vision is to reality and each one of the candidates is trying to outdo themselves decrying some segment of their base.”
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Pelosi will be a featured speaker at the convention and will be honored at a special sold-out dinner Saturday night.
“Nancy Pelosi has shaped generations of California Democrats through nearly four decades of fearless leadership and public service,” the California Republican Party’s chairman, Rusty Hicks, said in a statement. “We are honored to learn from her historic example of courage, conviction, and compassion at this year’s State Convention. Her relentless fight for justice, equity, and opportunity, from expanding access to health care and affordable living to defending our democracy itself, reminds us of a simple truth: when we stand together, we win.”