A group of Republicans on Capitol Hill is urging President Donald Trump to intervene in Texas’s increasingly bitter three-way Senate primary, warning that the intraparty clash could spiral into being the GOP’s most expensive race of the 2026 cycle.
The concern centers on Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) bruising contest against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), a race widely expected to head to a runoff. Party officials fear that if Cornyn falls and Paxton becomes the nominee, Republicans could be forced to spend at least $200 million to defend a seat they once treated as safely red.
That financial alarm has triggered a coordinated push by establishment Republicans to elevate the stakes around the race, both publicly and in private appeals to Trump.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who has endorsed Cornyn, framed the Texas contest as critical to the party’s national strategy.
“Senator John Cornyn is a very effective conservative senator for the state of Texas,” Thune said, speaking to reporters at a news conference on Tuesday. “We think that John Cornyn not only deserves to be reelected, but also ensures that Texas stays in the Republican column when it comes to the United States Senate, and frankly helps down-ballot races in the House of Representatives as well.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also sounded alarm bells. Internal polling released by the committee shows Paxton trailing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a hypothetical general election matchup while Cornyn leads. In a memo accompanying the data, the NRSC warned that “Texas cannot be taken for granted” and argued that its polling shows “only one candidate meets that threshold: John Cornyn.”
A GOP member of Congress, who has been given anonymity to reflect candidly, said Republicans view the risk as serious enough to justify Trump stepping in.
“I’m very concerned that we don’t win in Texas if Paxton is our candidate,” the lawmaker said. “Polls I see suggest the one person who absolutely wins in Texas is John Cornyn.”
At the same time, the lawmaker acknowledged Trump’s refusal to endorse has already reshaped the race.
“I can just tell you the president not endorsing Paxton was a massive win for John Cornyn,” the member said. “Having the president not endorse is the reason why John Cornyn will be in the runoff.”
Trump has so far resisted taking sides.
“I’m friendly with all of them,” he said earlier this month. “I like all of them, all three.”
At a White House briefing last week, press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is “watching all of these races across the country quite carefully,” declining to preview any endorsement.
Public polling underscores the establishment’s anxiety. A late-January survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found Paxton leading with 38% support among likely GOP voters, compared with Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The numbers suggest Paxton would enter a runoff as the favorite.
But not all Republicans agree the situation is as dire as party leaders claim.
“There’s no data that suggests Paxton has a more difficult time in a general election,” said a Republican consultant familiar with Texas politics, who has been given anonymity to reflect candidly. “Midterms are defined by base enthusiasm. Any candidate is going to have to work hard to keep Texas red.”
The consultant argued that months of heavy spending have failed to shift the primary landscape, suggesting the race may already be structurally set.
“We’ve run the science experiment,” the consultant said. “You’ve spent tens of millions of dollars and the polling stays consistent. I don’t know why anybody’s surprised.”
Other Republican veterans say the party risks creating the vulnerability it fears by trying to rescue a faltering incumbent.
“Cornyn has lost his fastball,” said a Republican adviser who has worked on Senate campaigns, speaking on background. “It just feels like he’s become a nonfactor in his own race.”
The adviser warned that pouring extraordinary resources into Texas would come with consequences elsewhere on the map.
“You suddenly create a competitive seat in Texas because you’re trying to drag a candidate across the finish line,” the adviser said. “There’s a huge opportunity cost to spending that kind of money in a state you shouldn’t have to.”
“That’s money not being spent in other Senate races around the country,” the adviser said. “That speaks to how flawed a candidate party leaders believe Paxton is.”
Turning Point Action, a Trump-aligned political group, endorsed Paxton this week, complicating any attempt by establishment Republicans to consolidate the field.
“Texas is ground zero in the renewed divide within the Republican Party between the activist-grifter wing and the donors and normies who care about electability,” GOP strategist Dennis Lennox said. “This isn’t just about winning a primary. With a difficult Senate map already in North Carolina and Maine, nominating Ken Paxton could turn what should be a safe Republican seat into the most expensive-ever Senate race.”
Cornyn said the endorsement could have some effect but emphasized that turnout, not endorsements, decides elections.
“It’s going to depend on the folks who actually show up to vote,” he said, speaking to reporters on Tuesday. “Endorsements don’t vote.”
Cornyn has projected confidence publicly while sharpening his attacks on Paxton.
“We’re making our case,” he said. “That’s what campaigns are all about and optimistic about the outcome.”
He dismissed Paxton as more focused on political theater than governing.
“All he does is issue press releases, open investigations and try to fan the flames of being a MAGA warrior,” Cornyn said. “If you’re going to successfully represent 32 million people in the U.S. Senate, you’re going to have to do a whole lot more than that.”
TURNING POINT ACTION ENDORSES KEN PAXTON IN TEXAS SENATE RACE
With early voting set to begin Feb. 17 ahead of the March 3 primary, Republicans are bracing for a runoff that could stretch the fight into May. Whether Trump ultimately steps in could shape not only the nominee but how much Republican money and attention Texas demands in a midterm cycle already crowded with battleground fights.
David Sivak and Ramsey Touchberry contributed to this report.