Few relationships are more important to the United States than the one with India. Yet, few have proven more difficult. Time and again, each nation has disappointed the other. But the recently announced trade deal between them offers a chance to reset and improve relations. It is important that both nations work to prevent this opportunity from going to waste.
President Donald Trump announced last week that the U.S. would cut tariffs against India from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and “buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela,” Trump told his followers on Truth Social. India will also reduce its tariffs and non-tariff barriers levied against the U.S.
Trump had kind words for his counterpart in New Delhi, calling Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi “one of my greatest friends.” Modi, he said, had committed to “buying American” at a “much higher level.”
“Our amazing relationship with India will be even stronger going forward,” Trump asserted. Let’s hope he’s right.
The U.S. and India have much in common. Both are vibrant democracies. Both were once possessions of the British Empire. Both are geographically large economic powers. Both also have growing concerns about a rising China.
By rights, they should have been longtime allies, but the U.S.-India relationship has often been characterized by mistrust and unmet, often unrealistic, expectations.
India, for example, expected greater American support, both culturally and politically, for its independence from Britain. During the Cold War, India positioned itself at the head of the Soviet-friendly Non-Aligned Movement, and bought Russian rather than U.S. weaponry. America’s closer relationship with Pakistan, India’s foremost enemy, and its sale of weapons to Islamabad was another sore point.
There have been several false starts. In 1991, India ended the Fabian socialism that had held the country back for its first four decades of independence. This, and the end of the Cold War, seemed to create an opening for closer relations. But an alliance never got off the ground.
Recent decades have offered reason for optimism. Both the global war on terrorism and the rise of China have led to a convergence of interests. America belatedly recognized Pakistan’s duplicitous sponsorship of terrorism. It was in Pakistan that U.S. forces finally tracked down and killed Osama Bin Laden.
Growing ties between the U.S. and India are one of the few bipartisan foreign policy success stories of the last three decades. Every U.S. administration since President Bill Clinton has tried to prioritize the relationship, expanding economic ties.
Some American policymakers have wanted India to be a treaty ally, working as a fully vested partner to contain China and protect American interests on the subcontinent. This is unlikely to become a reality in either the short- or medium-term. India’s foreign policy has long prioritized independence; its decision to lead the Non-Aligned Movement reflected something beyond a pro-Soviet tilt. Huge portions of the country remain underdeveloped, so, although it is a rising power, it will continue to look inward rather than outward toward America.
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India’s reliance on Russian oil, which was established during the Cold War, has fueled Moscow’s war on Ukraine, as Trump noted. The trade is not the behavior of an ally seeking better relations with America.
Yet, India and the U.S. are better together than divided. A safe and secure 21st century requires that the two largest democracies in the world work together. This will mean tempering expectations. It will also require patience, deft statesmanship, and the ability to correct missteps. The recent agreement between New Delhi and Washington is a good place to start.