For years, hostile regimes have tested the limits of American resolve, calculating that the United States would avoid confrontation even when its security interests were directly threatened. President Donald Trump has now upended that calculation.
The recent U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro, followed by tough diplomacy, combined with Trump’s clear warnings to Iran, sends an unmistakable message to every regime that thrives on hesitation. This administration will use our full national security toolkit when required to defend U.S. security interests, protect global stability, and impose consequences on those who fuel violence and repression.
That credibility matters because deterrence rests on capability and the possibility of action.
The U.S. should continue to do three things without hesitation. First, assert American leadership on the global stage through visible, decisive action. Second, intensify the administration’s crackdown on Russia’s shadow fleet, which finances President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Third, impose real costs on those who aid and abet our enemies through sanctions evasion, whether they fly false flags or operate behind shell companies.
When the U.S. acts decisively, America becomes safer, and our adversaries become weaker. That is particularly true when U.S. action diminishes Russia’s global reach.
Trump’s recent warning that the U.S. would take “very strong action” if Iran executed protesters did not land only in Tehran. It also landed in Moscow. For Putin, the prospect of another ally falling into crisis presents a serious strategic problem. Russia’s close ties with Venezuela, Syria, and parts of the Caucasus give Russia critical resources and credibility as a global power. That status has all been undermined by Putin’s weakness and Trump’s strength.
Iran’s instability is another major blow to Russia. For years, Tehran has served as a critical pillar of Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and a key enabler of its war in Ukraine. Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones before Moscow could produce its own at scale, then transferred designs, components, and technical expertise that allowed Russia to establish domestic production. Those systems now target Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, including churches and schools.
When Maduro fell, Moscow was too weak to intervene, and Putin increasingly lacks the capacity to rescue its partners when they falter.
Russia now faces a dilemma. As civil unrest grows and Iran’s regime’s future becomes less certain, Russia must choose between reputational damage from inaction and strategic danger from deeper entanglement. For now, Moscow can only watch as Trump considers his next move.
Trump must capitalize on Russia’s weakness and continue cracking down on Putin’s blatant disregard for U.S. sanctions policy.
Russia relies on a shadow fleet of falsely registered tankers to export oil to third countries, where it is refined, rebranded, and quietly sold into European and global markets. These vessels exist to evade sanctions and bankroll Putin’s war. Recently, sanctioned Venezuelan tankers have adopted Russian and other foreign flags to avoid detection, further intertwining the two regimes.
The Trump administration has responded decisively, having seized seven foreign-flagged oil tankers operating out of Venezuela following Maduro’s capture. These actions deserve strong support, and the administration should go further. Russia’s shadow fleet remains central to Putin’s ability to wage war, and dismantling it directly advances Trump’s goal to stop the violence.
To be effective, tough sanctions pressure must reach the countries that keep these regimes afloat. Trump has made clear that any country doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff. The same principle should apply to Russia. The president has already endorsed Republican efforts to advance legislation imposing 500% tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil, and Congress should move without delay to pass it. Economic pressure works when enforced consistently and without exemptions.
Over the longer term, energy strategy remains critical. Expanding access to Venezuelan oil reserves would reshape global markets within five to seven years. Increased supply would drive down prices, undercut Russia’s income, and weaken its influence. With as much as 30%-50% of Russia’s national budget derived from oil and gas, sustained price pressure would severely constrain Putin’s war chest.
FREEDOM DEPENDS ON STRONG AMERICAN LEADERSHIP
Putin believes time favors Russia and that the West will lose resolve. That assumption depends on continued access to revenue, compliant trading partners, and doubt about American will. Trump’s leadership has begun to dismantle each of those pillars.
When the U.S. leads with strength, it constrains Russia’s options and fractures its alliances. Capturing Maduro, confronting Iran, seizing illicit oil tankers, and enforcing sanctions all point in the same direction. Advancing in that direction will determine whether this moment becomes a turning point or a missed opportunity.
Richard Newton III is a retired Air Force lieutenant general with decades of experience in national security.