Welcome to the latest issue of Washington Secrets, where we will be rooting for Sam Darnold, the pride of New York, as no one calls him, in the Super Bowl. Today we have our weekly report cards, with John Zogby trailing his new poll with more trouble for Donald Trump, and we take a look at how you can waste your money with some sports-politics crossover betting …
Donald Trump and the White House tried to move on this week from the PR disaster of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions in Minnesota. Officials talked up an outlier poll that suggested the president’s approval rating had bounced back to 50%, and on Thursday, Trump addressed the National Prayer Breakfast and later launched a website for discounted prescriptions as part of an effort to remind voters that he is working to bring down costs.
But much of the week was focused again on foreign policy. On Monday, the United States secured a deal with India to cut tariffs in exchange for buying $500 billion of American goods and ending purchases of Russian oil. A day later, Trump welcomed Gustavo Petro, his Colombian counterpart, to the White House.
He started Friday with fresh controversy, after sharing a video on Truth Social that appeared to depict the Obamas as apes.
So what did our pollster and strategist make of it?
John Zogby: D
The week began with news that Trump and his sons are suing the IRS because an employee released three years of tax returns showing that they paid no federal taxes. The president nominated Kevin Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Wall Street loved it.
But the markets are now down, gold and silver have lost ground after a renaissance, and bitcoin seems to have evaporated.
Job openings are at their lowest since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 100,000 jobs were cut last month, more than twice the number cut in January 2025. Jobless claims have more than doubled.
A new John Zogby Strategies Poll, out later Friday, shows the president’s approval of handling the economy and affordability is at its lowest, with 3 in 5 disapproving. His approval rating overall and on eight other issues is down.
Trump decided to preach fire and brimstone at the normally bipartisan and staid National Prayer Breakfast — rivaling his performance at Davos recently. Now GOP leaders fear losing both houses in November.
“But he sent 700 ICE agents home from Minneapolis and continues to engage with the governor and mayor.”
Jed Babbin: C plus
This was a middling-good week for Trump and his team, with the shoot-down of an Iranian drone and the new trade deal with India, but the successes were more than balanced out by the failures in withdrawing ICE from liberal cities and states.
Trump is going into negotiations with the ayatollahs, never known for their sanity, after the Navy shot down an Iranian drone approaching the USS Abraham Lincoln and chased away some Iranian gunboats approaching a U.S.-flagged ship. Unfortunately, none of the Iranian gunboats was shot up and sunk. The negotiations with Iran are pointless. The ayatollahs have never, ever, lived up to their diplomatically negotiated obligations.
The deal with India is a superb achievement because it bars India from buying Russian oil. India’s Russian oil imports are more than 1 million barrels per day, so that hits Russia’s economy and takes away part of the means by which Russian President Vladimir Putin finances the war in Ukraine.
Unfortunately, Trump has been withdrawing ICE and other agencies from Minnesota and other liberal states and towns. On Truth Social, he said, “I have instructed Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, that under no circumstances are we going to participate in various poorly run Democrat cities with regard to their Protests and/or Riots unless, and until, they ask us for help.” There is no reason to back down while laws are being broken and rioters are not punished. Weakness won’t help Republicans in the midterm elections.
John Zogby is the founder of the Zogby Survey and senior partner at John Zogby Strategies. His latest book, Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, was just released. His podcast with son and managing partner and pollster Jeremy Zogby can be heard here. Follow him on X @ZogbyStrategies.
Jed Babbin is a Washington Examiner contributor and former deputy undersecretary of defense in the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Follow him on X @jedbabbin.
Three-way Texican standoff
J.L. Partners, friend of Secrets and one of the most accurate pollsters in the business, has new numbers on the Senate primary in Texas. And it is not good news for Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general and close Trump ally.
His lead in the race for the Republican nomination has all but evaporated. It is pretty much now a three-way tie.
When 600 likely primary voters were asked for their pick, 27% went for Paxton, down 2 points, compared with 26% for Rep. Wesley Hunt and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, both up 2 points.
One problem for Paxton, according to the polling memo, is that the more voters read about Hunt, the less positive about him they become.
“That stands in contrast to Ken Paxton,” the memo concludes. “Among the 38 percent who have seen, read or heard anything about him in the last two weeks, 28 pecent say it made them more favorable, 33 percent less.”
Hunt, who has represented a Houston-area House district since 2023, has the momentum and would also beat Paxton in a straight head-to-head matchup.
Mixing sports and politics
If you need your fix of politics during the Super Bowl, well then bookmakers have you covered.
At BetOnline, you can wager on whether or not ICE will raid a Super Bowl tailgate party. It offers “Yes” at +300 — a wager of $100 will win you $300 — and “No” at -500 — $500 will win you $100.
And how will Green Day change their lyrics in American Idiot? “I’m not part of a redneck agenda” is offered at +200; “I’m not a part of a MAGA agenda” is at -300.
Good luck!
Lunchtime reading
Inside Trump’s Takeover of DC’s Golf Courses: The National Links Trust, which ran three public golf courses in Washington, says discussions for a partnership with the Trump administration to renovate the courses came to an abrupt end when it had its lease terminated.
He made a joke on his Oregon theater’s marquee, then he says Amazon pulled the Melania movie: It all started with a joke on a movie marquee: “To defeat your enemy, you must know them. Melania starts Friday.”
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