Fighting has returned to northeast Syria. Government forces are again pushing to take control of areas still held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A temporary truce is now in place, but after more than a year of talks, Damascus and the SDF have failed to reach a real agreement on how these areas should be governed or protected.
The SDF is a Kurdish-led force that became a key U.S. partner in the fight against ISIS. That partnership once gave Kurdish leaders influence and a sense that greater self-rule inside Syria might be possible. Today, the political ground has shifted. And not in the Kurds’ favor.
As Syria expert Ibrahim Al Assil explained the situation during an event at the Atlantic Council this week. He noted that as President Ahmed al Sharaa’s government gained international acceptance, Kurdish forces steadily lost power. Kurdish leaders misjudged how quickly this would happen. They also underestimated Turkey’s role. For Ankara, Syria’s Kurds have never been a separate issue, but part of its long-running conflict with its own Kurdish population. That view has shaped Turkey’s push to weaken Kurdish forces across the border.
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Outside Syria, support for a strong central government is growing. The United States prefers dealing with one authority because it makes counterterrorism cooperation easier and allows Washington to reduce its military presence. Turkey wants Kurdish fighters fully absorbed into the Syrian army, which would strip them of independent power. Saudi Arabia, focused on restoring regional stability, also favors integration over further division. Russia, though far weaker than before and still linked to the violence of the Assad years, remains involved as it tries to keep a limited presence along Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
These pressures have left the Kurds increasingly isolated. Local Arab tribes have begun siding with Damascus, sensing where power now lies. This has weakened the SDF further and reduced its ability to negotiate from a position of strength.
The key question now is what comes next. Will the integration of Kurdish forces into the Syrian state actually protect Syria’s Kurdish population? Many remain skeptical. Other minority communities, including Alawites and Druze, have seen promises of protection fade once central control returned. In places like Kobane, civilians are already struggling with severe water shortages and restricted access to basic services, raising fears that Kurdish areas are being squeezed into submission.
Another unresolved issue is the fate of thousands of ISIS detainees. Around 70,000 fighters remained in Kurdish-run camps since ISIS was defeated in 2019. Many have been reintegrated in Iraq, but thousands are still in Syria. The roughly 10,000 adult men and teenage boys held in these facilities remain a top security concern. What happens to them could shape future instability.
Israel also plays a role that often goes unnoticed. Jerusalem and Damascus are reportedly discussing a security arrangement that could include Israeli troop withdrawals from areas of southern Syria in exchange for guarantees for the Druze minority and broader stability. Some talks even hint at Syria one day joining the Abraham Accords. While these withdrawals would reduce Israel’s ability to pressure rivals like Turkey, Israel believes it can re-enter if needed. This is especially true in relation to the Golan Heights, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said will remain under Israeli control.
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Syria may be moving toward a more unified and predictable state.
But if that unity comes without real protections for minorities and local communities, it risks repeating the same mistakes that helped spark the war in the first place.