Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently revealed that when traveling on Air Force One, he will “cocoon” himself in a blanket to avoid President Donald Trump so he can catch some sleep on overseas flights.
This week, Rubio could be forgiven for adopting a similar mentality.
One of the benefits of being the Secretary of State is that when there is a major domestic crisis that hits an administration, you can escape unscathed and live to fight another day.
In the case of Minneapolis, while others in Trump’s Cabinet, such as Vice President JD Vance, have waded in, Rubio has been busying himself with matters of state. His only post on X in the last 24 hours, for example, has been to mark Holocaust Remembrance Day.
For someone who could have 2028 aspirations, Rubio’s ability to sit out the PR crisis is a luxury others in Trump’s cabinet might not be able to afford.
Vance, for example, defended Trump and his administration after the shooting death of anti-immigration law enforcement protester Renee Good this month from the White House’s press briefing room podium before making his own trip to Minneapolis last week to do the same before the death of Alex Pretti, another demonstrator, who was shot and killed by a Border Patrol agent on Saturday.
On the weekend, Vance shared White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller’s description of Pretti as a “would-be assassin,” a characterization of the ICU nurse that has been largely met with scrutiny.
But although Rubio’s position as secretary of state may protect him from the full force of Minneapolis’ political repercussions, that does not mean he is completely inoculated from all of Trump’s decisions.
“Both Rubio and Vance own a hot spot and both will be judged on how well they handle it,” Dan Schnur, communications director for John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “Vance is tied to Minneapolis and Rubio has responsibility for Venezuela. Their candidacies will be framed by how well or poorly they handle these challenges.”
To that end, Rubio’s presidential prospects have improved in recent weeks, particularly after Trump’s capture of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro in Caracas.
In the immediate aftermath of the Maduro mission, Rubio underscored his appeal to Trump and more traditional conservative Republican war hawks, despite his political and policy differences with the president in the past.
Since running against each other in 2016 for the GOP nomination, Rubio has become one of Trump’s most trusted advisers and, arguably, his busiest Cabinet member as the acting national security adviser, U.S. Agency for International Development administrator, and archivist of the United States.
“This is the most meaningful Labor Day of my life… as someone with four jobs,” Rubio quipped last year during a Cabinet meeting.
But as Trump considers the extradition of Maduro to U.S. soil to answer to a drug-related criminal indictment in New York City to be an accomplishment, to Schnur’s point, it has been criticized for its shaky legal underpinning and for creating uncertainty regarding what comes next for Venezuela.
To that end, University of Minnesota Humphrey School of Public Affairs research fellow and Minnesota Historical Election Archive curator Eric Ostermeier, contended Rubio is “vulnerable to events abroad that are beyond his control,” in addition to “the possibility that “high-profile administration foreign policy goals,” for example, ending the Russia–Ukraine war, “may remain unsolved by the time [2028 Republican presidential] primary season comes around.”
“But even if Rubio enters the cycle with few red marks on his resume, public opinion has elevated economic, domestic, and the government itself as the nation’s most pressing problems, rather than foreign policy issues,” Ostermeier told the Washington Examiner. “There may not be as high of an upside or low of a downside to Rubio’s performance as secretary of state in the minds of Republican primary voters when deciding which candidate to support.”
Republican strategist Charlie Back also encouraged caution regarding making too many assumptions before the 2028 primary.
“The problem with speculating this early is several things,” Black told the Washington Examiner. “Will Trump’s foreign policy be popular in 2028? Will voters focus on foreign policy? They usually don’t. Will Trump endorse a GOP candidate? Hard to know how Vance or Rubio will stand with him two years from now.”
Another Republican strategist, Duf Sundheim, agreed, reiterating that “in presidential politics, inevitability is usually temporary.”
“At a comparable point in the 2008 cycle, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani dominated their respective fields, yet neither secured the nomination,” Sundheim told the Washington Examiner. “What ultimately reshaped those races were events — and there are reasons to believe events could again disrupt today’s dynamics.”
In that respect, Sundheim argued that the ramifications of the “federal incompetence” in Minneapolis are “unknown,” and “if Democrats regain control of the House and the Supreme Court moves to constrain Trump’s tariff authority, the political terrain could shift significantly.
Two years before the first votes will be cast in January 2028 in Iowa, Vance is the frontrunner and heir apparent to Trump’s MAGA base.
“It’s too early, obviously, to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point,” Trump said of Vance last year.
Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics, for one, has Vance with an average 37 percentage point advantage over his most competitive opponent, Donald Trump Jr., 48% support to Trump Jr.’s 11%. Rubio is third with 10%.
The University of Minnesota’s Ostermeier asserted that it could be a double-edged sword because it may be “more difficult for Vance to campaign for a change in direction from Trump 2.0 from the perch as his vice president if, say, economic issues like affordability and the economy remain front and center concerns in the minds of voters.”
“Vance’s candidacy therefore may be more tied to the overall success of Trump’s presidency as well as Trump’s endorsement,” he said.
Simultaneously, for strategist Sundheim, where Vance is “most vulnerable is not policy, but perceived authenticity.”
“Some Republican voters still view him as an opportunist — someone who went from a ‘Never Trump’ critic questioning Trump’s moral fitness, to a figure who appears to have abandoned independent judgment for the pursuit of presidential power,” he said.
Sundheim differentiated Rubio’s previous criticisms of Trump as “narrower” and “centered on competence rather than character.”
“His subsequent willingness to work with Trump can be framed as pragmatic, even patriotic,” the strategist said. “That distinction may matter electorally, particularly with Hispanic voters — one of the key blocs Republicans have lost due to Trump’s policies — where Rubio is better positioned.”
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But Sundheim concluded: “Ultimately, this race is unlikely to be decided by today’s odds. It will hinge on events, and on which candidate convinces voters they have the personal vision, credibility, and conviction to meet them.”