European Commission president Ursula von Der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa are in New Delhi this week as the chief guests for India‘s Republic Day celebrations and for the 16th EU-India Summit.
It’s a huge moment for Europe and India. The two sides finalized a long-awaited free trade agreement, nicknamed the “Mother of All Deals” by von Der Leyen and India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal. It will create, as von Der Leyen pointed out in her speech in Davos, a free market of 2 billion people, accounting for a quarter of global GDP. The two sides also discussed a security and defense partnership, an agreement on information security, and a memorandum of understanding on a mobility framework.
There is also something less tangible but perhaps more significant at play here. At a time when the European Union and India are feeling the squeeze from the United States, especially in terms of President Donald Trump‘s general unpredictability, both are looking for partnerships that promise less volatility. This relationship could thus usher in a new era of global partnerships.
For the EU, strengthened ties with India represent both an economic opportunity (access to one of the world’s fastest-growing economies) and a strategic opportunity to build bridges with democratic powers outside the West. India could also help Europe balance against an increasingly assertive China without carrying the usual baggage of Cold War alliances. For India, the relationship with Europe offers a way to avoid overdependence on any single major power — especially the U.S. — while securing access to European technology, investment, and markets. For both sides, it’s a way to pursue a strategy of strategic autonomy in their own unique ways. India will continue its strategy of multialignment, and the EU will continue to wean itself off American security guarantees.
Major questions remain, however. For one, the EU and India must both be willing to overlook internal differences if the relationship is truly to flourish. Europe must understand that India’s relationship with Russia, including the close personal bond between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, won’t change, likely ever. And India will have to understand that Europe’s bilateral relationships with Pakistan will remain a priority for its member states. India also views Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism as a protectionist racket that could potentially wipe out the advantages a free trade agreement would provide. And the EU will likely have to put concerns about India’s domestic politics to the side and not place too much pressure on New Delhi.
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Still, this is the type of flexibility that this new era of great power competition requires. The EU and India feel as though they’ve been burned by Washington in more ways than one — whether in terms of punitive tariffs, visa rollbacks for Indians in the U.S., or threats to annex European territory. This means there’s an urgency behind the EU-India relationship that hasn’t been there for the last 20 years. Because of that urgency, this EU visit to New Delhi has already been more notable than most.
Even with the structural limitations of the EU-India relationship, Washington is at risk of losing significant influence with both the EU and New Delhi.
Rachel Rizzo is a senior fellow with the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme.