Iranian leaders not only “intend” to rebuild their conventional military forces, but they are open to “the possibility” of trying to obtain a nuclear weapon, according to the Pentagon’s newly released National Defense Strategy.
The Pentagon’s assessment of the Iranian regime comes more than six months after the U.S. military carried out Operation Midnight Hammer, targeting three of the country’s nuclear facilities. It also comes as the United States increases its presence in the region as Iran cracks down on nationwide protests.
“Although Iran has suffered severe setbacks over recent months, it appears intent on reconstituting its conventional military forces. Iran’s leaders have also left open the possibility that they will try again to obtain a nuclear weapon, including by refusing to engage in meaningful negotiations,” the National Defense Strategy said.
The Pentagon released the NDS, a guiding document that explains how the department will implement the National Security Strategy, on Friday evening.
The U.S. Air Force carried out the bombings of three Iranian nuclear facilities last June during the Israel-Iran 12-day war. In the aftermath of the strikes, President Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth insisted the facilities were “totally obliterated,” while a preliminary report from the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded there was less damage than publicly indicated.
About two weeks after the bombing, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said, “We have degraded their program by one to two years at least.”
The U.S. is currently increasing its presence in the Middle East after Trump threatened to intervene militarily in Iran’s crackdown on protests nationwide earlier this month. Amid an intentional internet blackout, Iran’s security forces allegedly killed thousands of protesters, though tallies have not been confirmed.
The Iranian government announced earlier this week that the anti-government protests came to an end after 25 days, and state television reported that 3,117 people were killed during that time, though human rights groups have warned the death toll could be much higher.
Trump warned that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” but ultimately said that Iran’s apparent decision to halt roughly 800 executions last week had a “big impact” on his decision not to approve military action, even though an Iranian official disputed what happened on Friday.
The U.S. dispatched an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, to the region from the Pacific, and increased its air power as well with the deployment of a dozen F-15Es assigned to the 494th Fighter Squadron at Royal Air Force Base Lakenheath, U.K.
“We have a lot of ships going that direction just in case,” Trump said on Air Force One Thursday night, adding that “we have an armada heading that direction and maybe we won’t have to use it.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed this week that Iran will not show the same “restraint” it showed after the U.S. strikes on their nuclear facilities, “our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack.”
After the U.S. strikes, Iranian forces launched short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest American military base in the Middle East. The U.S. was able to evacuate most of the personnel ahead of the retaliatory operation because Iran intentionally telegraphed it to ensure it wouldn’t further escalate the war. No U.S. personnel were injured or killed.
The U.S. evacuated some personnel from Al Udeid earlier this month due to heightened tensions.
“President Trump has consistently made clear that Iran will not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons,” the NDS said.
WHAT ARE TRUMP’S MILITARY OPTIONS FOR IRAN?
The NDS, like the national security strategy, identified the defense of the homeland as the dominant priority, and that has been on display during the first year of the administration. Over the last year, the Department has taken on a larger role in securing the southern border and is now in the planning stages for a comprehensive air defense system. Trump named the Golden Dome, while the administration sought to acquire Greenland, arguing its location makes it essential for the air defense system.
The document also explains that the U.S. does not seek to “dominate… strangle or humiliate” China, but it wants to “prevent anyone, including China, from being able to dominate us or allies” in the region.
Even with the emphasis on diplomacy between the two military powers, the NDS acknowledged that the department has to be “clear-eyed and realistic about the speed, scale, and quality of China’s historic military buildup.”