A special election in Michigan’s 35th District could offer one of the first clues about the 2026 political landscape, with control of the state Senate hanging by a single seat.
The stakes are unusually high for a state legislative race. Democrats currently hold a one-vote majority in the Michigan Senate. A Democratic win would preserve that edge for the remainder of the term. A Republican victory would deadlock the chamber at 19-19, immediately reshaping the balance of power in Lansing and giving Republicans new leverage over what legislation can move forward.
The race came further into focus this week when Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated both the Michigan Senate and House as true tossups, signaling that control of the legislature is very much in play as the midterm cycle begins.
“This is one of the few early elections where the result actually changes governing power,” said a Republican strategist working in the state, speaking on background. “That’s why people are watching it as a potential bellwether.”
The strategist said interest in the race has been building quietly, with national attention expected to follow once the field narrows. “Most people assume the spotlight comes later,” the strategist said. “But the ingredients are already there.”
The district itself is also more competitive than the raw numbers suggest. While Democrats have won the seat in recent cycles, and Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district in 2024, it includes parts of Bay, Midland, and Saginaw counties that have shown mixed results in other contests, making the outcome far from a foregone conclusion.
The vacancy opened after former Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet left the legislature to join Congress last year. Republicans argue Gov. Gretchen Whitmer waited too long to call the special election, pointing out that the district went more than 200 days without representation, a delay that only added to the attention on a race with unusually high stakes.
McDonald Rivet won the seat by about 7 points in 2022, but operatives in both parties say the district looks different today, making the outcome far less predictable than it once seemed.
The size of the field alone shows how wide-open the race is. A total of 10 candidates, six Democrats and four Republicans, are running in the special election, giving voters a long list of choices. On the Republican side, the lineup ranges from business leaders and attorneys to educators and political newcomers. Democrats are fielding an equally diverse group, including firefighters, doctors, educators, military veterans, and party leaders, all trying to make the case that they’re best positioned to represent the district in Lansing.
The sheer size of the candidate slate are also shaping how strategists are evaluating each party’s chances. Some outside operatives say the sheer number of candidates, particularly on the Democratic side, could complicate the party’s path in a race where margins matter.
Greg Manz, a senior strategist at Direct Edge Campaigns, said the dynamic reflects broader recruiting challenges for Democrats.
“Michigan Democrats’ inability to recruit top-tier candidates represents a major failure, similar to their lackluster House recruiting efforts in 2024,” Manz said. “Whoever emerges from the GOP primary will be in prime position to win in May and, in turn, tie the Senate.”
That uncertainty is already shaping how outside groups are approaching the contest. The GOP strategist said the messy primary fields have made it a bit of a moving target. Some organizations, including groups already running ads on behalf of specific candidates, are weighing in early, while others are still sorting through the crowded ballot before deciding where to spend big.
Democrats are framing the election as a referendum on maintaining momentum in Lansing and preventing a power shift that could stall their agenda.
“Michigan Democrats are laser-focused on the issues that matter most, like lowering costs and protecting health care,” said Curtis Hertel, the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “This special election is crucial to maintaining our majority in the state Senate and electing a strong Democratic leader that’s ready to fight for Michiganders in Lansing. Each of the Republican candidates running are too extreme for our state, and we look forward to winning the general election in April as Michigan Democrats continue fighting for working families.
Still, operatives say the race is likely to be driven less by Washington politics than by state-level concerns, including education outcomes, utility costs, and the economy.
“National politics always matter, but voters here are focused on what they see every day,” the Republican strategist said. “Schools, energy bills, jobs, those are the things shaping how people are thinking.”
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The special election calendar only adds to the spotlight. Voters in the 35th District will go to the polls four times this year: a special primary in early February, the special general election on May 5, the regularly scheduled primary in August, and the general election in November. Because the May contest will occur months before most competitive federal races are decided, strategists expect it to be closely watched as an early read on political momentum heading into the midterms.
“By the time this gets decided in May, people are going to be looking for signs about where the mood is heading,” the Republican strategist said. “In a cycle like this, that’s usually when things start to harden, and this race could be one of the first places you see it.”