As Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) launches his reelection bid, the Pennsylvania governor’s race is coming into focus, with Republicans sidestepping another Doug Mastriano nomination but still confronting a difficult path to defeating the incumbent.
Shapiro commenced his 2026 campaign Thursday, opening what may be his last statewide race as national Democrats increasingly view the Pennsylvania governor as a possible presidential contender in 2028. He enters the contest with formidable political and financial advantages, including strong approval ratings and a massive fundraising edge.
His campaign told the Associated Press on Tuesday that it has $30 million cash on hand, setting another fundraising record in the battleground state and underscoring the scale of resources available to the Democratic incumbent.
Republicans are expected to rally behind state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, a two-term statewide winner who has secured the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Republican Party. Garrity had not yet disclosed her campaign fundraising totals ahead of the Jan. 31 deadline for candidates to file campaign finance reports.
Polling suggests Shapiro begins the race with a wide cushion. A Quinnipiac University survey from October 2025, taken before Shapiro entered the race, showed him ahead of Garrity by 17 points and registered his approval rating at 60% during his third year in office.
The emerging matchup comes a day after Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano announced he will not seek another bid for governor, less than three years after losing to Shapiro by 15 points. Mastriano said he is not ruling out a future run, but his decision removes a polarizing figure many Republicans viewed as a general election liability.
Republican strategists say the absence of Mastriano gives the party a stronger starting position, even as they acknowledge the scale of the challenge.
“Josh Shapiro has never faced a truly tough challenger,” Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist, said. “He’s going to face one now, and the dynamics will be very different than they’ve been in the past.”
Gerow described Garrity as a more formidable nominee than Republicans fielded in 2022, though he emphasized that she would still be running uphill in a state where Democrats maintain a registration advantage.
“She’s a proven vote-getter,” Gerow said. “She’s going to run as the underdog, and it’s a steep climb, as it is for every Republican statewide in Pennsylvania.”
A retired U.S. Army officer and former business executive, Garrity has served as Pennsylvania’s chief financial officer since 2021. She has cast herself as a populist watchdog, highlighting efforts to return unclaimed property to residents and expand participation in state-run education savings programs. A vocal ally of President Donald Trump, she has leaned into her ties to the party’s base as she prepares for a statewide race.
Republicans argue that Shapiro’s popularity is more fragile than it appears and that his record has yet to face sustained scrutiny.
“His support is a mile wide and an inch deep,” Gerow said. “Nobody has really challenged him yet.”
That line of attack has already surfaced in early messaging. In December, a group aligned with Garrity released a stylized video resembling a crime-thriller trailer that referenced the Ellen Greenberg case, a Philadelphia stabbing death overseen by Shapiro’s office during his tenure as attorney general.
Greenberg’s death was initially ruled a homicide before being reclassified as a suicide despite more than 20 stab wounds. After the city’s medical examiner said in October that he no longer believed the death was a suicide, Shapiro said he continues to stand by the attorney general’s office conclusion while acknowledging the case failed to bring closure for Greenberg’s family.
While Republicans argue the case underscores broader questions about Shapiro’s record, Democrats say swapping Mastriano for Garrity does little to alter the fundamentals of the race.
“There’s not a lot of air between their platforms,” Brit Crampsie, a Democratic campaign consultant based near Harrisburg, said. “This is the Mastriano agenda with a different haircut.”
Crampsie also questioned whether Garrity’s statewide wins translate into broad voter familiarity.
“I would be surprised if her name ID touched 30%,” she said. “I don’t know if most people even realize we elect a state treasurer.”
Democrats point to Shapiro’s approval ratings as evidence of unusually durable support in a state known for tight margins.
“That level of approval is nearly unprecedented in a purple state like Pennsylvania,” Crampsie said.
Veteran Democratic consultant Daniel Fee said Shapiro enters the race with advantages that extend beyond polling or fundraising, pointing to Pennsylvania’s long history of rewarding sitting governors with second terms.
“Pennsylvania is not a state that routinely throws out governors,” Fee said, noting that Ed Rendell, Bob Casey Sr., Tom Ridge, and Tom Wolf all won reelection comfortably, often by double-digit margins. “Unless your name is Tom Corbett, governors who are performing tend to win again here.”
Fee said that dynamic makes the 2026 contest less about the Republican nominee and more about voters’ assessment of Shapiro’s record.
“This is a referendum on Josh Shapiro,” he said. “Voters have four years of his record to judge, no matter who he’s up against.”
He added that Pennsylvania voters have historically gravitated toward candidates who fit comfortably within the political mainstream, a pattern that has shaped statewide races across parties for decades.
“Pennsylvania doesn’t really elect people who live at either extreme,” Fee said. “That’s been true here for a long time.”
JOSH SHAPIRO LAUNCHES REELECTION CAMPAIGN: ‘KEEP GETTING STUFF DONE’
Avoiding another Mastriano nomination may help Republicans, but beating Josh Shapiro is a much taller order.
“Josh Shapiro is not a mystery to anybody,” Crampsie said. “We know a lot about Josh Shapiro, and we like it.”