Rep. Elise Stefanik‘s (R-NY) success in the New York gubernatorial race rides on balancing three things: maintaining her persona as an anti-Washington fighter, beating her GOP primary opponent, and, once she has done that, still having the stamina to battle Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
Stefanik’s journey has been relatively smooth sailing since she launched her bid. With no primary challenger, she has spent the last month focusing her attention on Hochul and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), a member of her party with whom she has waged public battles over the last few months.
In a blue state like New York, Republican candidates are already at a disadvantage. However, Stefanik has worked to distance herself as a product of the Washington “swamp” and sought to turn the election into a referendum on Hochul, which will likely be the best way for her to win, strategists told the Washington Examiner.
However, the entrance of Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County executive, into the Republican primary added a third task to Stefanik’s already daunting list of things she needs to accomplish to win this election.
Stefanik has had to shift gears and spend considerable time and resources proving to Republican voters, as well as to President Donald Trump, that she is the only GOP candidate who can oust Hochul.
She will need to attract both the MAGA base to win the primary, but then win over the centrists needed for a statewide victory.
“She has a pretty robust operation already established, but at the same time, this is a complication for her, because if you are running as a Republican statewide in New York, you have to pitch a perfect game,” said Matthew Klein, House and gubernatorial analyst for Cook Political Report.
How a Trump endorsement, if any, will affect Stefanik’s chances
Stefanik would significantly benefit from a presidential endorsement to win the primary. However, that does not appear to be coming any time soon.
Prior to Blakeman’s entry into the race, Trump was asked about a possible matchup between the county executive and Stefanik. He declined to endorse either of them, saying, “He’s great, and she’s great.”
That decision may have shocked some people, who thought Stefanik either had the endorsement already or was a shoo-in to receive the president’s support. However, to strategists, it made perfect sense.
Unlike some GOP primaries of late, both Republican candidates for governor are established, well-liked, and not an “embarrassment” to the party. They each have roughly the same policy stances and are connected to the MAGA base, a significant bloc needed to win a primary.
“It makes no sense for Donald Trump to get involved in this primary, actually,” Republican strategist Susan Del Percio said, noting that if he does, he will likely wait until the last minute or just do so when the nominee is selected.
New York strategist Lawrence Levy, who is also the executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies for Hofstra University, said right now, there’s nothing Trump can gain from “giving up his golden card” and endorsing.
Klein said he thinks Trump is being strategic about deciding whether to wade into the New York primary. He values loyalty in his allies, and both Blakeman and Stefanik fit that bill. So by staying out of the race, it’s his way of “not upsetting either of their loyalties, and, in a way, rewarding them — even though I don’t think either of them would view it that way.”
A lack of endorsement in the race could also mean that he’s not 100% confident in who would win in a primary. Stefanik has a national image and a loyal base in her constituency. However, Blakeman proved he can win in the New York suburbs when he won reelection as county executive.
“He gives these ‘complete and total endorsements’ when he feels usually very confident that a candidate is going to win,” Klein said. “And he does not enjoy being upset, candidates who lose, that he has publicly put his political capital behind.”
“This could be one reflection that his team isn’t entirely confident in Stefanik’s ability to get over the hump,” he added.
Could a Trump endorsement cost Stefanik in the general election? Del Percio said it’s “always an issue” to have the president’s support in a blue state. However, Trump is able to turn out voters.
“And if he can do that, if he can help her do that, that would definitely be to her advantage,” Del Percio said.
Levy said the Republican nominee will need to sway “soft Democrats” and “moderate independents” to pull off an upset of Hochul in the general election. In that arena, Levy said he believes Blakeman has the advantage.
However, he acknowledged that what makes him stronger in the general election makes him vulnerable in the primary.
“Blakeman’s tried to position himself as both a loyal MAGA conservative and a moderate, independent Republican who’s capable of building bridges between the two worlds,” Levy said.
Levy pointed out that Blakeman was able to secure 50% of the Latino vote and a third of the black vote in his reelection, in a region where Republicans are lucky to get 10% — two key voting blocs that “decide competitive elections everywhere in this country.”
However, he said his past support of Democrats and his position as an abortion-rights Republican could “turn off” MAGA voters and give Stefanik an edge.
Stefanik noted Blakeman’s past performances and decisions in her response to his campaign launch, calling him an “early Christmas present for Kathy Hochul as he works to blow Republicans’ best chance to win.”
However, Republicans have seen this film before. They have thrown their weight behind the more extreme candidate in the primary, only for that candidate to lose in the general election to a Democrat. If Stefanik is chosen, she will have to do more than rely on a Trump endorsement.
“If she runs as a Trump candidate, it’s almost impossible for her to win,” Klein said.
Stefanik’s anti-Washington stance
To gain support from voters in New York, Stefanik will have to do what many candidates struggle with: proving they can stand up for their state against Washington.
Over the last few months, Stefanik has worked hard to prove that she’s not afraid to criticize her party. She has had two public spats with Johnson, and she has largely pulled away from the House, stemming from the fact that she privately blames the speaker for her losing out on an administration position.
However, she has not taken the route of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) or Thomas Massie (R-KY) in criticizing the speaker and the president, which has proven to be political suicide.
She can’t push away Trump because she will lose out on the MAGA base and a possible endorsement, Del Percio said.
“So, who do you push away from? The speaker,” she said. “It’s a good choice; the speaker’s not popular. She has the leeway to do it, since she’s running for governor and she’s not looking to go back into the House. So she won’t need anything from the speaker in the future.”
If Stefanik manages to score an endorsement from Trump, it will put her right back in the crosshairs of Hochul and Democrats’ attacks, no matter how much she claims to be a “D.C. swamp” fighter.
“She can’t run away from it, which is why she’s probably picking these fights with Johnson because that’s how she’s going to fight Washington,” Del Percio said. “She’s not going to fight Donald Trump. She’s going to say, ‘I’m not afraid to turn against my party, look at what I’ve done with Speaker Johnson. This is the fight, this is what I’ve done.’ Expect a few more of those situations to come up.”
New York State Democratic Party Spokesman Addison Dick told the Washington Examiner that Stefanik has branded herself as Trump’s top ally and has voted with his “destructive agenda 100% of the time this year.”
“While Sellout Stefanik tries to out-MAGA Bruce Blakeman for Trump’s endorsement in the messy GOP primary for governor, Governor Hochul is focused on putting money back in New Yorkers’ pockets, protecting health care, and investing in public safety,” Dick said. “New Yorkers are seeing a clear contrast between a leader fighting for their families and a Trump cheerleader who is too busy crashing out about the ‘deep state’ to care about the issues that matter to working families.”
Klein said Stefanik’s decision to take an anti-Washington stance could work with turnout, given that much of the GOP base is frustrated with recent decisions by Republican leadership on Capitol Hill. However, he said it is more likely to backfire, given that she has worked in the state as a member of Congress since 2015.
STEFANIK’S RAGE WITH JOHNSON SUBSIDES, FOR NOW
When she fought with Johnson over a National Defense Authorization Act provision, it may have been to show that she will fight even her own party to get on the side of the president.
“The specific fight was on a very niche issue, yes, but one that is deeply personal to Donald Trump and deeply personal to people who are loyal to Donald Trump,” Klein said. “Is it a potential play for her to kind of win over his affections? Possible.”