Shortly after Republican candidate Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in an off-year special House election in Tennessee, media in Washington, D.C., immediately began the time-honored tradition of hyperanalyzing the outcome to predict the fortunes of political parties.
These elections, though, rarely tell us anything useful. In 2023, Democrats won off-year races in Virginia, an abortion referendum in the red state of Ohio, and the governorship in the red state of Kentucky. In 2024, Democrats lost both the presidency and both chambers of Congress.
Most of the number crunching this time focused on the spread of Van Epps’s victory. In 2024, Trump won the district by a commanding 22 points. Van Epps won it with a slender nine. The district has been in GOP hands since 1983, and it was the lowest percentage total for a Republican win since that year.
POLL OVERSOLD DEMS CHANCES IN TENNESSEE
It’s also true that turnout was less than half of what it was in last year’s presidential election. This, despite significant spending and high-profile endorsements. But, as we’ve seen in the past, races rarely scale up in perfect percentages.
But while Tennessee doesn’t offer a magic eight ball, it reflects the problems both parties face.
It’s certainly fair, for instance, to ask why turnout for this high-profile race was low. For one thing, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of enthusiasm within the GOP base. This may well speak to the looming danger of creating a party that ties its fortunes to the fortunes of one man.
The alleged Trump “realignment” was predicated on his appeal to low-propensity working-class, often apolitical, voters. It’s not to say that Trump’s agenda wasn’t authentically appealing, but many of these voters have no real loyalty to the GOP — certainly not to uninspiring House candidates.
In many ways, electoral politics is now functioning in a post-Trump world. It shows. And his voters might not be especially motivated to come out again. If Republicans believe they can ignore middle-class concerns and rebuild the Trump coalition with sloganeering and the populist left-wing economics of the “New Right,” they will be in for some hard times.
Then again, Tennessee also shows us that Democrats have increasingly been captured by the hard left. Democratic socialists might well save the GOP.
Progressives are already contending that the relatively narrow margin in Tennessee shows they can run competitive races in moderate districts. Maybe. There is, however, a counterhistory to consider: what happens in Tennessee’s Seventh District if a normie, traditional Democrat who adopted the tone of their colleagues in Virginia, where they hammered Republicans. Would Democrats be more likely to win this peculiar special election in which barely anyone voted?
Because the notion that an “AOC of Tennessee,” or any iteration of that idea, is a viable candidate outside of an urban center is (still) improbable. You don’t have to be a professional political strategist to believe that a candidate who supports socialized medicine, unfettered late-term abortions, gun bans, “gender-affirming care,” Black Lives Matters, and opposes immigration enforcement, right to work, and fossil fuels, may not have a bright future in a Southern State.
WHY SHOULD TRUMP CARE ABOUT WAR POWERS?
I’ve seen people contend that Behn would have won if she hadn’t struggled to deal with previous remarks calling her state “racist” and ragging on country music and Nashville. This isn’t bad luck, though; it’s the norm. Virtually the AOC type has a history of radical statements because, well, they’re radicals.
Van Epps’s win will give Republicans 220 House seats to 213 for the Democrats, who are in line to pick up another two seats in special elections in Blue districts in early 2026. If history is any indication, Republicans will then take a beating in the next midterm elections. That’s likely to occur no matter what the results are in any special election. The opposition’s base is always more motivated. But in many ways, the Tennessee special election is a microcosm of the long-term challenges both parties face in a post-Trump environment.