Republican Matt Van Epps won Tuesday night’s special election in Tennessee‘s 7th Congressional District, beating Democrat Aftyn Behn by a larger margin than last-minute polling showed. However, there were still significant Democratic gains in the district.
The outcome of the special election was thrown up in the air last week when an election tracker and a new poll suggested the race would have been tighter. Inside Elections shifted its rating for the district from “safe Republican” to “lean Republican” in response to a poll conducted by Emerson College and the Hill that showed 48% of voters supporting Van Epps and 46% supporting Behn.
Much of the language ahead of the election framed it as a tight race.
As of Wednesday morning, Van Epps secured the victory by a nine-point lead with almost all votes counted. Van Epps garnered nearly 54% of the votes, compared to Behn’s 45%.
While the larger-than-expected win is a good sign for Republicans heading into next year’s midterm elections, Van Epps underperformed compared to President Donald Trump and former Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who both won the district by more than 20 points last year.
The congressman-elect is filling the seat vacated by Green, who announced his retirement in June after winning the 2024 election.
Furthermore, Democrats made positive gains in every county across the district. Every county shifted blue compared to last year’s presidential election, according to the election results published by the New York Times. Davidson County, the only county that Behn won, shifted leftward by 20 points. That county includes Nashville, a predominantly liberal city in an otherwise red state.
“Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. “Aftyn centered her campaign on lowering grocery, housing, and health care costs for Tennessee families.”
If Behn had won the entire district, she would have joined the trend of Democratic victories upsetting Republicans in the 2025 election cycle.
Democrats have become especially confident after winning the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey ahead of the 2026 elections, in which all House seats will be up for grabs.
Van Epps is the latest Republican to boost the House GOP’s narrow majority.
REPUBLICAN MATT VAN EPPS WINS TENNESSEE SPECIAL ELECTION, DASHING DEMOCRATIC HOPES OF UPSET
While Trump was quick to celebrate the incoming congressman’s victory in a Truth Social post, Democrats warned Republicans to watch out next year.
“Tonight’s results make it clear: No House Republican’s reelection should be considered safe next November,” House Majority PAC spokesman CJ Warnke said. “National Republicans were forced to pull out all the stops, spending nearly $4 million and investing in a massive turnout operation, all to salvage their candidate in a district that voted for Trump by 22% last year.”