Texas has emerged as one of the top battlegrounds for the midterm elections, both in its push for redistricting and as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) fends off one of the most serious primary threats of his career. In Part 3 of this series, the Washington Examiner explores the redistricting wars that began in the Lone Star State through a series of interviews with strategists and GOP members of the Texas delegation. Read Part 1 and Part 2 here.
Texas led the fight for the mid-decade redistricting effort after President Donald Trump backed an effort in the state to gain five seats, but the outcome remains uncertain, pending a court decision.
The redistricting effort aims to create 30 Republican-friendly congressional seats, compared to just eight districts favoring Democrats, resulting in a five-seat boost for the GOP from its current 25-13 advantage.
While Democrats hope this effort backfires on the party, Republicans remain confident that their proposed map is Constitutional and will be upheld in their uphill battle to keep the majority in 2026.
“What is remarkable is how redistricting could play out, which is that it could actually backfire on Republicans, because it’s based on one cycle’s assumptions, so the idea that you’re going to go and lock legislative seats in based on the results of one election cycle may not be the genius move that it was proposed to be,” Democratic Strategist Jon Reinish told the Washington Examiner.
“It’s all with the courts,” he concluded.
States usually begin the redistricting effort every 10 years, meaning the state was not expected to until 2030, but this rare move has sparked movement across the country.
The issue in the courts
A lower court in Texas issued a ruling that would require the state to use the map drawn by legislators in 2021. However, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito granted a pause to the ruling, which would scrap the newly drawn maps backed by the White House.
“Do I think Texas shifting its balance so that we get five additional seats, so the percentage is even fractionally closer to the absurdity of New England, Illinois, California, do I think that’s somehow problematic? No, I don’t,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) told the Washington Examiner. “Do I think we will sustain the constitutional scrutiny on it? I do.”
Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), the dean of the Texas delegation, also shared this sentiment, stating that the maps will stand, adding that he has confidence regardless of whether the Supreme Court issues a decision on the case before the state filing deadline of Dec. 8.
“The Court of Appeals did not do as other courts have done,” he said. “They seemingly offered no respect, they jumped in in the middle of filing.”
“It would not surprise me if the Supreme Court really did not address the issue,” he continued, adding that some stays issued by the highest court can “last for years.”
House members scramble for districts
Democrats have been reevaluating their plans for the districts that have drawn current members out of office. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has reportedly been considering a Senate bid if the proposed Texas redistricting map causes her to be drawn out of her current district. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), who has represented the Austin area since 1995, preemptively announced that he would retire earlier this year, though that decision is in doubt due to redistricting uncertainty.
“To borrow from Mark Twain, the reports of my death, politically, are greatly exaggerated,” Doggett said in a statement following the lower court decision. “This federal court order means that I have a renewed opportunity to continue serving the only town I have ever called home, as democracy faces greater challenges than at any point in my lifetime.”
“While Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott are appealing directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, I am hopeful about the final outcome, likely announced this month, since even a Trump-appointed trial judge ruled against the Trump gerrymander,” he continued.
Doggett was planning to retire instead of running against Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX), the chairman of the House Progressive Caucus, which would have allowed Democrats to avoid a messy primary in the event of redistricting.
Texas members are not the only ones scrambling to finalize their reelection plans. Punchbowl News reported that Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) is planning to run in Texas after Proposition 50 passed in his home state of California last month, which redraws the map to remove 5 Republicans in response to the Texas redistricting effort.
Reverberation across the country
The push to redistrict in Texas marked the beginning of a redistricting war that has since unfolded across the country in recent months.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) garnered a massive victory last month after he led an expensive campaign leading up to the 2025 elections to pass Proposition 50, a measure that allows the state to counter Texas’s map by drawing out five Republicans in the state.
Other states, such as Utah, Florida, Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, and Illinois, are actively discussing redistricting possibilities. Missouri and North Carolina have successfully passed new maps in response.
TEXAS SENATE RACE SHAPES UP TO BE 2026 MIDTERM BARN BURNER
“I’m very concerned about the constant perpetual nature of redistricting,” Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) told the Washington Examiner. “The norm was every 10 years, and it was part of the decennial census process, and we need to stick to that.”
Other members have also expressed this concern to the Washington Examiner that redistricting wars could become the new normal after this year.