Texas has emerged as one of the top battlegrounds for the midterm elections, both in its push for redistricting and as incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) fends off one of the most serious primary threats of his career. In Part 2 of this series, the Washington Examiner explores the crowded, high-profile sprint to represent the upper chamber for the Lone Star State through a series of interviews with operatives inside and outside the state. Read Part 1 here.
Texas is shaping up to host one of the most competitive Senate races in 2026, and many believe that if Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is the nominee, the state will be in play.
The Texas Senate race is a crowded and expensive one after Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) jumped in the race to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) for his seat after the longtime Texas senator lost his race to become the next Senate majority leader to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
“It’s all going to depend on who the nominee is,’ Democratic Operative Jon Reinish told the Washington Examiner on the Democrats’ chances in the race. “Is it Wesley Hunt, John Cornyn, or Ken Paxton?”
Both Cornyn and Hunt believe the easiest path to a Democratic victory in the red state is for Paxton to be the nominee. Democrats in the state also believe their easiest path to victory is a race against Paxton, who is a staunch conservative but has a scandal-ridden past.
“Ken Paxton is hard, hard, hard right. He’s much more polarizing, even to a tilt-red electorate like Texas, so if he is the nominee, this is a race,” Reinish continued. “If he’s not the nominee, I’m going to say maybe this is not the year, and Democrats should not raise $50 million for whether it’s Colin Allred or James Talarico.”
A spokesperson for Hunt told the Washington Examiner that all three will have an ”uphill battle given President Trump is not on top of the ticket,” in the general election, pointing to the 2018 midterm race where Democratic nominee Beto O’Rourke came within a less than three-point margin of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, Democrats could win their first statewide race in Texas since 1994 unless $200M is dedicated to attempting to save this Senate seat with a deeply flawed nominee,” Cornyn’s campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak told the Washington Examiner.
Not all Republican operatives believe this is the fate of the Senate race.
“Thinking Paxton significantly puts the seat in jeopardy is the same beltway bull**** that has spent over $40 million to move their numbers exactly zero,” a Texas GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner. “Further, all polling shows margin of error neutrality in the general election—anyone who says otherwise needs to go retake 5th-grade math.”
Some close to Paxton have also echoed the sentiment that 2026 will be a replay of 2018, while expressing their confidence that Paxton can take on any candidate in the primary.
“There’s no concern for Paxton,” someone close to the Paxton campaign told the Washington Examiner. “I mean, Cornyn will have to spend all their money on Hunt keeping them out.”
Paxton’s campaign noted that Hunt’s entrance into the race took the heat off Paxton, as Cornyn has focused much of his campaigning against Hunt, refusing to drop out despite pressure from congressional leadership backing Cornyn.
“Since the day he launched, the negative stories about Ken Paxton quit,” the Paxton ally continued.
The race seems to be headed for a runoff as each of their campaigns continues to tout different polling that leans in their favor. A Hunt super PAC released a poll late last month showing Cornyn slipping into third place in a runoff between the candidates, trailing just 1% behind Hunt with Paxton in the lead. A pro-Cornyn group released polling Monday showing the incumbent having a two-point lead over Paxton.
Democratic race promises to be just as competitive
But the Republican primary is not the only competitive one. Democratic Texas state Rep. James Talarico jumped in the race earlier this year, massively outraising former Rep. Colin Allred, who was the Democratic Senate nominee in 2024.
Talarico is in seminary, studying to become a pastor, while also serving as a member of the state House. The 36-year-old has 1.2 million followers on TikTok and is a former sixth-grade teacher in San Antonio. Just weeks before launching his campaign, Talarico joined podcaster Joe Rogan on his podcast, which is widely embraced by the conservative movement, to discuss his outlook as a Christian Democrat.
Allred was captain of the Baylor football team, where he first gained recognition in the Lone Star State. He went on to play in the National Football League before becoming a civil rights lawyer, eventually serving in the House of Representatives. Allred mounted a bid against Cruz last year, but ultimately lost by nearly a 10-point margin in the red wave.
Talarico brought in $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his campaign, surprising many in the state. His press release stated that he raised the most in the first quarter for any Senate candidate of any party in history.
As Democrats have long accused the party of not devoting enough time or energy to the state to make for a competitive run, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) has reportedly been considering a Senate bid if the proposed Texas redistricting map draws her out of her district.
While both Hunt and Cornyn make the case against Paxton and each other, Texas will remain center stage heading into 2026, making for both an interesting and expensive race, with the GOP having a handful of other seats to protect.
Republicans have to protect both the seat in Maine and North Carolina against tough races, as they also fight to flip Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-GA) seat.
POWERHOUSE TEXAS DELEGATION SCRAMBLES 2026 MAP WITH WAVE OF HOUSE RETIREMENTS
“Republicans can kiss their Senate majority goodbye if Texas is in play in 2026,” Republican Strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. “This isn’t a case of crying wolf one too many times. If Ken Paxton wins the nomination, Republicans will have to spend $100 million in Texas — money that won’t be spent in Maine, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, or New Hampshire.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Talarico and Allred’s campaign.