From the moment Israel and Iran agreed to a U.S.-imposed ceasefire in June, ending a 12-day air war that the United States itself participated in, the Iranian nuclear issue has taken the form of one long, never-ending soap opera.
As far as we can tell, Iran’s 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains buried somewhere underneath the rubble of Fordow and Natanz, the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, which were heavily damaged by U.S. airstrikes. President Donald Trump continues to insist that Iran’s nuclear program is “obliterated.” And the Iranians remain caught between a state of defiance and resignation, with hardliners and moderates unsure of whether to proactively push for another round of talks or to bunker down in preparation for more war.
The story took yet another dramatic turn this week. On Nov. 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors censured Iran for noncompliance and demanded the country begin implementing a verification deal that Tehran signed with the agency in September. That protocol was supposed to result in the reentry of IAEA monitors into the country, the resumption of inspections in Iran’s major nuclear facilities, and a report, issued by the Iranian government, about the status and location of its remaining enrichment stocks.
Iran, however, responded to the IAEA’s latest resolution as it has in the past: by cutting off cooperation. The Iranians wasted no time after the IAEA’s censure. The September deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, is now null and void. All of this is coming at a time when the Iranians, still reeling from the significant devastation their defenses took in June, are trying to rebuild their missile capability— according to Israeli authorities, one-third of Tehran’s missiles were either used or destroyed during the 12-day war in June — and churning on with work at another underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain.
For Washington and Jerusalem alike, all of this is quite concerning. But it’s not exactly surprising either: The notion that the U.S. and Israel could bomb Tehran’s nuclear program into extinction by essentially putting the fear of God into the Iranian political and security establishment was always a bad assumption.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has devoted three decades to building up Iran’s independent nuclear capacity, not to mention the tens of billions of dollars in direct spending. The Iranian economy has lost out on hundreds of billions of dollars in economic opportunity courtesy of the U.S. and international sanctions regime, yet the Iranians have nevertheless persisted with their efforts. Khamenei has also tied the survival of the nuclear program to the survival of the Islamic Republic itself, meaning any capitulation on the nuclear file will be considered a huge blow to the regime’s credibility. Rather than push the Iranian elite into submission, the U.S. and Israeli strikes over the summer likely convinced some within the system that a weaponized nuclear program is absolutely imperative.
Fortunately, the Iranians haven’t given up on diplomacy altogether. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reportedly gave a letter to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman before his trip to Washington. Addressed to Trump, the letter stated that Iran didn’t seek conflict and remains willing to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy. In an interview with the Economist, Araghchi reiterated the message that Tehran was open to a fair, balanced deal that would provide Washington and anybody else worried about Iranian nuclear weaponization with concrete assurances. Trump hasn’t taken diplomacy off the table either and often flirts with the possibility of resuming negotiations with the very country he bombed months earlier.
Yet, none of the happy talk will make a difference if the core question remains unsolvable: What will be the status of Iran’s enrichment program at the end of the day?
Iran’s red line hasn’t changed after the U.S. and Israeli military operation months ago: Under no circumstances will Tehran mothball its indigenous nuclear enrichment program, no matter what economic concessions Washington provides. The Trump administration, in turn, is as committed to forcing a no-enrichment option down the Iranians’ throats now as they were when the first nuclear discussions took place in the spring. Nothing has changed, and nobody has moved.
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Normally, negotiations would aim to square the U.S. and Iranian positions into an acceptable hybrid that both sides can live with. No hybrid appears visible at the moment, and unless one or the other agrees to water down their original demands, there won’t be one in the future.
Trump can talk about diplomacy all he wants. So can the Iranians. To state the obvious, talking about diplomacy is not the same as actually doing the work. The reality is that nobody should be even remotely optimistic at this time.