China remains infuriated by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement last week that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would threaten Japan‘s “survival” and would thus justify military engagement to defend Taiwan.
This is an entirely logical assertion by the new prime minister. A Chinese conquest of Taiwan would result in Beijing’s dominance of trade flows in the western Pacific and its militarily encirclement of Japan’s southern outlying islands. Beijing would be able to leverage this military power to demand political concessions that fundamentally diminished Japan’s democratic sovereignty. In turn, the United States should be grateful to Takaichi. Her leadership here stands in stark contrast to that of other regional leaders such as South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung.
It is partly due to this broadcasting of support for the U.S. that Beijing’s fury with Takaichi remains incandescent.
Responding to a set-up question from Chinese state media on Thursday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman declared that “The Japanese side must correct its wrongdoing at once and retract the unjustified remarks. Otherwise, all the consequences arising therefrom must be borne by the Japanese side. … If Japan should dare to meddle in the cross-Strait situation, it would be an act of aggression, and China will strike back forcefully. We will firmly exercise our right to self-defense under the U.N. Charter and international law and defend China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. … Those who play with fire will perish by it!”
Interestingly, the Chinese foreign ministry’s transcript of Thursday’s press briefing toned down “will strike back forcefully” to “will definitely meet a firm response from China.” Still, the anger here is very real. The spokesman’s reference to playing “with fire” is traditionally reserved by Beijing for concerns of most serious dissatisfaction. A hyperventilating editorial from Beijing’s Global Times newspaper echoed this sentiment, declaring Takaichi’s “absurdity, heinous nature, and malicious intent.”
Beijing’s anger reflects two factors.
First, Xi Jinping’s view that Taiwan is an inherently internal matter for China that broaches no foreign interference. Xi views the reunification of Taiwan under the Chinese Communist flag as a prerequisite for the fulfillment of his destiny of securing China’s global hegemony. By stepping onto Beijing’s red line issue so soon after taking office, Takaichi has hit hard against Beijing’s sorest pressure point.
Second up, there’s Beijing’s fear that the more nations that make clear they will stand with Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, the more likely it is that other nations will join them. This will increase the prospective costs of any attack and the risks of failure to Beijing. Put simply, China has a very clear vested interest in minimizing the possibility of any external powers coming to Taiwan’s aid.
CHINA’S SELF-DEFEATING JAPAN BEHEADING THREAT
That said, China’s threats to strike Japan in the event of any Japanese intervention over Taiwan aren’t exactly a cause for new sleepless nights in Tokyo. After all, Japanese leaders were already well aware that if they were to join any defense of Taiwan, Japan would quickly fall under attack. The presence of major U.S. military bases in Okinawa and the only forward-deployed aircraft carrier at Yokosuka naval base makes Chinese attacks on Japan near-inevitable in a war scenario. Of course, those bases also underline why Takaichi believes it would be near impossible for Japan to avoid joining any U.S.-Taiwan war effort.
What we’re seeing here, then, is both rage designed to force Takaichi to adopt a more conciliatory position and Beijing’s great fear that Takaichi will be resistant to its pressure regardless.