After 18 months of fighting, Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian town once home to 60,000 people, has been reduced to ruins. Russian forces control most of the town and have continued efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops still holding out in its western districts. Pokrovsk will likely fall. But its capture will not change much in the broader course of the war.
The Institute for the Study of War noted this week that Russia will likely seize Pokrovsk, but only after taking more time and suffering greater losses than it would if it had concentrated its resources elsewhere. Pokrovsk has been a key Russian target since the fall of Avdiivka in February 2024. The Kremlin’s troops have since advanced roughly 40 kilometers northwest, at a cost of enormous casualties.
Ukraine says the Russian military command committed 170,000 servicemembers to offensive operations in Pokrovsk and that Russian forces suffered 25,000 killed and wounded in October alone. Still, its capture would mark Russia’s biggest territorial gain since Bakhmut fell in 2023.
Pokrovsk is smaller than Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and sits on the crossroads of several roads leading toward Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk, cities that make up what Ukrainian officers call the “fortress belt” of Donetsk. Taking Pokrovsk would open the road to these larger hubs. This makes it strategically significant, and losing it would complicate Ukrainian logistics, opening avenues for further Russian advances.
For 3 1/2 years of war, Russia’s objective has been to establish control over all of the Donetsk region. But even with Pokrovsk under Russian control, much of Donetsk Oblast would remain in Ukrainian hands, including the major cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. That bears noting. After all, if Russia maintains its current tempo, 18 months to take Pokrovsk, years to take Bakhmut before that, it will take it many more years to capture the entire Donetsk region, and at costs that make the current casualty figures look modest.
When zoomed out, it’s obvious that this is not a war Russia is winning. The Kremlin’s real strategy is psychological. Russia hopes to exhaust Ukrainians, drain Western support, and turn attrition into leverage.
Yes, Pokrovsk’s fall would be bad news for Ukraine, but hardly dramatic. This is not where the war will be decided. The real turning point will depend on how firm the United States and its allies remain, whether they enforce secondary sanctions, cut Europe’s reliance on Russian oil, and accelerate defense investments.
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Russia must be contained on every front. That means limiting its reach not only in Ukraine but in Georgia, Moldova, and beyond, while sustaining military aid to Kyiv and increasing Western defense spending. The message must be that the West’s commitment is serious, long-term, and comprehensive. The war in Ukraine is not a regional conflict but one for the future of the Western world, and it will determine whether the democratic world still has the will and capacity to defend itself.
What will be critical is not the defense of one tiny town, but whether the West can hold the line.