Exit polls from last week’s off-year elections showed the economy, especially affordability, was the top issue on voters’ minds. A strong majority of Americans, including a slim majority of Republicans, rate the economy as “fair” or “poor.” Yet President Donald Trump, much like former President Joe Biden before him, refuses to believe it.
Asked by Laura Ingraham on Fox News, “Why are people saying they are anxious about the economy?” Trump rejected the premise of the question.
“I don’t think they are saying that, I think polls are fake,” he said. “We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had.”
Voters who buy increasingly expensive groceries and don’t like it will remember that Biden said the same thing right before Trump cantered to victory in the 2024 elections. In both cases, the presidents’ responses are defensive because in both cases, the two men were aware of the truth and simply wished it were not so. If Trump wants Republicans to prevent the party from being pummeled in 2026, he needs to drop the happy talk and change course — particularly on tariffs — before it is too late.
There are some narrow areas where the economy has greatly improved. The prices of eggs and gasoline are way down. But the prices of beef, coffee, auto repairs, and housing are all rising, and Trump’s responses either admit that tariffs are the problem or would make the situation worse.
On beef and coffee, Trump promised that tariff relief is coming soon. Which is nice to hear, but also an admission that tariffs cause rising prices. “We’re going to take care of all this stuff very quickly, very easily,” Trump claimed. “It’s surgical. It’s beautiful to watch.” There has been nothing surgical about the chaotic announcement and haphazard implementation of tariffs, the details of which change almost daily.
Housing starts are down, and construction costs are way up as Trump’s trade policy has wreaked havoc on lumber, steel, aluminium, and concrete imports. Manufacturers have been hit equally hard by rising electronic, chemical, and machine tools costs. Trump has even acknowledged that farmers need a bailout because they have been cut off from the soybean market and are also paying higher prices for fertilizer and farm equipment.
“Everyone agrees energy is down,” Trump claims. That is true of gasoline largely because of his deregulatory policies. But the price of electricity is up. Overall, energy costs are rising, not falling.
Pressed on the fact that the average age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high of 40 years old, Trump at first blamed Biden before touting his new 50-year mortgage plan. But 50-year mortgages will drive prices up further, not make anything more affordable. It boosts demand without increasing supply. Instead of further enriching banks by making homeowners pay mortgages forever, Trump should stick to increasing supply, an idea he mentioned during the campaign that he seems to have abandoned since taking office.
Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividend is also a terrible idea that will make the economy worse. How is it any different than the Biden stimulus payments that everyone agrees caused the worst inflation crisis in a generation? Instead of trying to mitigate economic pain caused by tariffs with stimulus checks, how about just ending the economic pain by getting rid of the tariffs?
The economy was recovering nicely before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement. Real wages were rising, business investment was up, energy prices had stabilized, and food inflation was easing. The Trump tariffs disrupted all that, stalling what was about to be a strong economic recovery.
EDITORIAL: THE SUPREME COURT CAN MAKE ELECTION DAY GREAT AGAIN
Trump is likely going to lose his tariff case soon at the Supreme Court. He will be tempted to be defiant and reimplement narrower tariffs using a patchwork of other tariff authorities. That would be a mistake. The best thing he could do for the Republicans in 2026, for his legacy, and for the economy is to take the off-ramp the Supreme Court gives him and let the tariffs die. Then the economic recovery that began when he was sworn into office can begin again.
Trump can’t talk voters out of what they feel in their wallets. Declaring the economy “the greatest ever” won’t make groceries cheaper or housing more affordable. If he wants Americans to believe in his leadership again, he must start acknowledging their struggles instead of pretending everything is perfect.