At first glance, Kazakhstan’s decision to join the Abraham Accords last week holds little relevance. Israel and Kazakhstan have held diplomatic relations for over thirty years, prompting critics to view the latter’s entry into the accords as nothing more than a self-aggrandizing act by President Donald Trump. But there is more to this decision than meets the eye.
The Abraham Accords are a strategic partnership between Israel and Muslim-majority nations with the aim of expanding regional cooperation. In some cases, the accords have opened the door to normalizing ties with Israel, with countries like the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Bahrain recognizing the country for the first time. Signed in 2020, the Accords represented a watershed moment in the history of the Middle East, breaking with decades of entrenched grievances toward Israel in a region where many states still do not recognize its right to exist.
Kazakhstan, however, established relations with Israel in 1991 after gaining independence from Russia. Bringing the resource-rich nation into the agreement holds significant strategic relevance.
First, it extends Iran’s strategic encirclement by adding to the growing list of pro-West, pro-Israel countries in the Middle East and Central Asia. Iran remains the United States’ primary threat in the Middle East, and Washington has used the Abraham Accords as one tool to curb Tehran’s influence and that of its proxies. Even though Iran and Kazakhstan hold strong trade and commercial relations — Kazakhstan has long helped Iran avoid international sanctions through oil swap deals — Astana has now sent a strong signal of its alignment with the West. In doing so, it gains strong allies, which it hopes will eventually allow it to decouple from Russia. Kazakhstan is a strategic partner for Iran. Should circumstances call for tougher actions against the Islamic Regime, Washington now holds significant leverage over Astana.
Second, this action could prompt other countries in the region, like Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, to follow suit. That would mean Iran being sandwiched between pro-Western countries, leading to even greater isolation.
It’s also important to note that this is happening at a moment when Iran is already at its most vulnerable. After two years of confrontation with Israel, Iran has suffered heavy military and nuclear losses, and the devastation of Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels and Hamas. Astana’s entry to the Abraham Accords is thus unnerving the regime. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson harshly criticized the action.
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Kazakhstan is joining the Abraham Accords at a time of growing international criticism towards Israel in response to its conduct in the war in Gaza. But this action signals that Israel is far from isolated on the world stage, even as the number of countries recognizing Palestine continues to grow.
But most of all, alliances derive power from expansion, and Astana’s step marks a weakening of Iranian posturing in the region.
Alissa Pavia is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council.