It took weeks of negotiations and a creeping sense of defeat before Democrats cracked in a bitter shutdown fight, but the makings of a deal were there even before government funding lapsed.
In what became a seven-week war of attrition, Republicans finally won over the eight crossover votes needed to clear a Senate filibuster and begin the process of reopening the government on Sunday night. The bill won’t pass until later this week, as the House still needs to cast a final vote, but an emerging deal signaled that the end of the shutdown was near after more than 41 days of congressional gridlock.
Those eight breakaway senators were quick to point out the backpay guaranteed for furloughed workers plus a new and late-developing concession: the White House would reverse thousands of layoffs it had initiated after the shutdown began on Oct. 1. However, the deal was largely the same one Republicans had offered weeks ago.
Republicans agreed to reboot bipartisan spending talks, with a package of yearlong bills passed Monday alongside a short funding patch into January. They would also allow a December vote on premium Obamacare subsidies that expire at the end of the year.
SENATE PASSES BILL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, TEEING UP FINAL HOUSE PASSAGE
That subsidies vote is a far cry from what Democrats have been demanding since before the shutdown began. At first, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wanted a permanent extension of the subsidies and, later on, couldn’t get Republicans to commit to a one-year deal.
But Democrats did succeed in making healthcare a rallying cry with their base, dragging out the shutdown long enough to get past off-year elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and beyond. Ultimately, Democrats caved once it became politically untenable to continue, with centrist “yes” votes citing airport delays and a freeze on food stamp benefits.
The leadership dynamic
The funding deal vindicates Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s (R-SD) decision not to negotiate the subsidies until Democrats cooperate on funding.
That negotiating position was shared by the rest of congressional GOP leadership and the White House, but pressure was applied unevenly to Democrats. The Trump administration yo-yoed between easing the pain caused by the shutdown and making it uncomfortable for them to vote “no.”
Early on, the White House decided to keep paying troops unilaterally and prevented a program for low-income families from shuttering. It wasn’t until food stamps payments were put at risk that Democrats became exasperated, with the White House insisting it did not have the legal authority to keep doling out benefits.
Bipartisan talks also accelerated as the shutdown began to affect air travel and, in theory, air safety. By the time a deal came together, the Federal Aviation Administration was ordering hundreds of flights to be cancelled due to staffing shortages.
“I could see the end of this coming,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), the only member of Senate Democratic leadership to vote for the funding bill. He described a conversation he had this past week with the head of the air traffic controllers at O’Hare, the airport serving Chicago, as an inflection point.
“There were more and more people who said this has gone on way too long,” Durbin added, arguing Democrats had stood their ground and had nothing more to gain by prolonging the shutdown. “We proved our point.”
THE SENATE DEMOCRATS WHO VOTED WITH REPUBLICANS TO REOPEN THE GOVERNMENT
Thune made several legislative pivots before he managed to dislodge the votes needed to overcome a filibuster. He put a House-passed funding bill on the Senate floor well over a dozen times and, when Democrats weren’t budging, forced them to vote on “rifle shot” bills that would have opened the government in piecemeal fashion, all of which failed.
President Donald Trump became a wild card at the end of the shutdown fight, becoming so frustrated with the length of the impasse that he resumed his crusade against the Senate filibuster. But Republicans remained united long enough that centrists were convinced it was futile to stick with their Obamacare demands.
Thune offered a meeting with Trump over the subsidies once the government reopens, though that meeting has yet to be announced. On Monday, he reiterated that he still thought a bipartisan deal could be reached on healthcare.
“I mean, I think there’s a path forward on that,” Thune told the Washington Examiner. “Obviously, it can’t be without reforms, but my expectation is, at some point, the president is going to be very inclined to want to do something to make healthcare more affordable in this country. And obviously, what we have today isn’t working.”
For Schumer, the calculus was more complicated. He stayed just as dug-in as Thune, at least publicly, and decided to join most of his caucus in voting against the funding bill. But Schumer was navigating the shutdown fight with his left flank already upset that he caved back in March, when Republicans won a separate funding standoff.
That earlier standoff led to a flurry of speculation that the length of the shutdown was performative and meant to ease blowback in New York, where he could face a primary challenger in 2028.
The shutdown also got wrapped up in the governor’s race in Virginia, with Republicans claiming it was no accident that a deal came together once the elections were behind them.
Schumer, for his part, has dismissed claims that he wanted to get past the elections or, relatedly, break the 35-day shutdown record set in Trump’s first term. He noted last week that he and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the House minority leader, have requested multiple meetings with Trump to overcome the impasse.
His deputies also denied that Schumer privately blessed the deal as progressives began to once again call for his resignation as Democratic leader.
“I’ve been in many of those rooms, and he fought like hell against that,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), who is slated to replace Durbin as Democratic whip when he retires next year.
Rank-and-file breakthrough
To a large extent, the deal that emerged was a byproduct of negotiations that were already underway between congressional appropriators.
The Senate had passed a trio of full-year spending bills, known as a minibus, that Thune offered as the basis for a shutdown deal, with the main question being whether they could reach an agreement with the House. There was also some debate over how long a new spending patch for the rest of the government would last.
The offer was not much of a concession, as Democrats were already interested in sending the measure to Trump’s desk and helped pass it in a big, bipartisan vote back in August.
But Republicans argued that the best move for Democrats, who spent months complaining that Trump was illegally defying Congress on spending, was to jump-start the appropriations process. The shutdown bill, they argued, was a concrete way to reclaim control over what gets funded and what does not.
The group negotiating that compromise got larger as Democrats began to entertain an end to the shutdown, with Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) serving as a go-between for Republicans and Schumer.
On the Democratic side, Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Angus King (I-ME), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, took the lead on rank-and-file talks.
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, worked out the details of the minibus with Chairwoman Susan Collins (R-ME) before releasing text on Sunday afternoon.
The most notable concession, a moratorium on Trump’s layoffs through January and a reversal of those he initiated during the shutdown, was inspired by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who represents hundreds of thousands of federal workers in Virginia.
Thune told reporters on Monday that he believed the White House was “involved in all the discussions around that subject,” which picked up traction only a couple of days before a deal was reached.
WHERE EVERY SENATE REPUBLICAN STANDS ON TRUMP’S CALL TO END THE FILIBUSTER
As for the vote on Obamacare subsidies, Thune gave Democrats a commitment that a bill would be brought to the floor by the second week of December, though Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) won’t give a similar commitment in the House, leading Senate Democrats to question their sincerity on getting a healthcare deal done.
King, speaking to reporters after voting for the funding bill, estimated that Democrats now had 50%-50% odds of getting the subsidies extended, versus the zero chance he gave with the government shut down.
Johnson has already told House Republicans, gone for the duration of the shutdown fight, that they need to return to Washington “right now” so that they can send the funding bill to Trump before the end of the week.
Ramsey Touchberry contributed to this report.