While Republicans may have found a new boogeyman in New York Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, political operatives are warning they might be overlooking a much more formidable opponent, California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Since surviving a 2021 recall and cruising to reelection a year later, Newsom has transformed his governorship into a national platform. He has sparred publicly with President Donald Trump, debated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Fox News, and used his Campaign for Democracy political committee to boost Democratic candidates and causes across the country.
He’s cultivated a large online following, hosts a podcast that amplifies his policy message, and posts Trump-style memes and rapid-fire videos that mock conservative governors and highlight California’s progressive policies. His landslide win with Proposition 50, a constitutional change cementing Democratic control of California’s redistricting process, gave him a major policy victory and, in the eyes of many observers, a springboard toward 2028’s presidential election.
While Republicans blast Mamdani as the face of socialism, Newsom has been quietly, and at times aggressively, cultivating donors, visiting early-primary states, and sharpening a message aimed at elevating California’s model of governance on the national stage. He’s leaned into national media appearances, and his Campaign for Democracy PAC has churned out polished videos accusing red-state leaders of “hypocrisy” and touting California’s “freedom with results” message, a line he repeats in speeches and online ads.
In Republican war rooms, the debate over which Democrat to target first has become a familiar one; Mamdani excites the base, but Newsom keeps them up at night. Several strategists caution that the party risks losing sight of the larger battle ahead, one likely centered on Newsom, who they say has been methodically positioning himself for a White House run.
“There’s no denying Gavin Newsom is a talented political athlete, slick, ambitious, and totally made for TV,” said Michigan-based Republican strategist Greg Manz. “He’s the polished face of a radical Democratic Party that’s lost touch with working American families.”
“Republicans shouldn’t get distracted, the real threat isn’t just Newsom’s presidential ambitions, it’s the Marxist drift of the entire Democrat apparatus he represents,” Manz added.
Other Republicans see it in tactical terms. Florida-based Republican strategist Ford O’Connell laid out what he called a “two-track plan.”
“The 2026 play is Mamdani,” he said, arguing that tying House Democrats to the new mayor’s brand of democratic socialism helps motivate low-propensity Trump voters. “He turns them out in the midterms and gives us the contrast we need in swing districts.”
“But make no mistake, Newsom’s been planning a presidential bid for years. Once the midterms are over, he’s the main event.”
O’Connell, who’s advised campaigns nationwide, said Newsom’s methodical buildup reminds him of “a snake-oil salesman who knows how to sell the bottle.” In his view, the governor’s ability to blend charisma with combativeness makes him one of the toughest Democrats for Republicans to define. “He’s been working on this since before most of the party even realized it,” he said. “He’s playing the long game.”
Democratic strategists, meanwhile, think Republicans are chasing a mirage. Jon Reinish called the GOP’s laser focus on Mamdani “a flavor-of-the-week strategy.”
“He’s a convenient boogeyman, young, far-left, easy to caricature,” Reinish said. “But he’s not Nancy Pelosi. Most voters will ask, ‘What does this guy have to do with my life?’ Meanwhile, Newsom is a far bigger political threat, especially after Prop 50.”
Reinish said what sets Newsom apart is his comfort operating inside Trump’s own media arena.
“He’s one of the few Democrats who actually enjoys the fight,” he said. “He’s mastered the memes, the trolling, the short clips. Republicans underestimate how effective that can be.”
Back in Sacramento, longtime California Democratic adviser Steve Maviglio offered a more nuanced take. He has watched Newsom weather political highs and lows for decades and said the governor is peaking again after Prop 50, though the timing came with a hitch. “For now, Mamdani’s socialism scares swing voters,” Maviglio said. “But for the long term, Newsom’s the one they need to watch. He’s at the top of his game after Prop 50 and has shown time and again that he’s politically resilient.”
Still, Maviglio noted, Newsom didn’t entirely own the night. “The fact that he had to share election headlines with the new mayor of New York probably didn’t thrill him,” he said. “He won big, but he wasn’t the story, and that’s not where Gavin likes to be.”
To Maviglio, that dynamic could ultimately help Newsom. “Every time they make someone like Mamdani the villain,” he said, “Newsom looks more moderate, more reasonable, more presidential.”
The next two years will test how well Republicans can walk that line, using Mamdani to define the left without letting Newsom define himself. Party operatives say the strategy may work in the short term, helping them frame 2026 around socialism, crime, and social issues.
But if Democrats hold the House and Newsom carries his momentum into 2028, Republicans could find themselves facing a Democrat who’s already spent years building the case to take on Trump’s party head-on.
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O’Connell said the two contests are linked: “Winning the House in 2026 helps you fight Newsom in 2028,” he said. “That’s why Republicans can’t afford to lose focus.”
To some Republicans, that warning may sound premature. But inside the party’s campaign circles, few doubt that Newsom’s next act is already well underway.