Russian forces are struggling to fully encircle Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk. While heavily outnumbering their Ukrainian counterparts, they have been unable to cut off the defenders’ northern supply lines and totally besiege them.
At the tactical level, this failure reflects Russia’s continuing inability to conduct effective combined arms operations at scale in Ukraine. At the strategic level, it undermines Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s priority effort to persuade President Donald Trump that Russia has the battlefield initiative and that Trump’s recently increased pressure on Russia should thus be redirected to Ukraine.
Putin surely isn’t happy. It was only last week, after all, that Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, told the Russian president that his forces had completed the encirclement of two settlements — Pokrovsk in southeastern Ukraine and Kupyansk in eastern Ukraine. Congratulating the general, Putin then directed the Russian military to allow foreign journalists freedom to inspect these encirclements safely. The pledge reflected Putin’s desire to broadcast to Trump that Russia is winning. In another nod toward shaping Trump’s attitude, Putin told Gerasimov to “take all comprehensive measures to ensure the surrender of Ukrainian servicemen — those who, of course, wish to do so.”
A week later, however, Kupyansk isn’t even close to being encircled. And while Ukraine’s stronghold in Pokrovsk is very fragile, its forces are not entirely encircled there either. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered in Pokrovsk, but supply lines remain open. Reinforcements are being directed into the city and in other areas to pressure Russia to deconcentrate its forces.
To be sure, Pokrovsk’s capture is a priority for Russia. The city sits on three major roads, including the westward E50 highway. Control of the city would allow Russian forces to conduct broader offensive action across the Donbas. Yet, the fact that Putin is obsessing over Pokrovsk at all is indicative of his growing desperation over the war’s direction.
While seizing Pokrovsk would mark a defeat for Ukraine and success for Russia, it would hardly offer the kind of breakthrough that Putin has been prophesying since the start of this war in February 2022. Consider that only 15 miles west of Pokrovsk, along the E50 highway, is the village of Andronivka. Sitting on the Byk River, Ukrainian forces could establish a strong new defensive line here (rivers pose a continuing problem for Russian forces, which are already suffering significant equipment losses by attempting river crossings to support the encirclement of Pokrovsk). Even then, Russia would have to make sizable new territorial gains to reach Andronivka.
Put simply, Russia has not yet accomplished what Gerasimov and Putin said it accomplished last week. It still may not accomplish that task. Hence why Putin attempted to change the subject on Wednesday, centering the main talking points of a national security council meeting on Trump’s pledge to resume nuclear weapons testing rather than on Pokrovsk.
A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE GETS A LOT WRONG. A LOT
Again, Pokrovsk may yet fall.
Still, there are two key lessons to be learned from this situation. First, do not trust Putin or his generals when they make bold claims. The Russian establishment has an exceptionally intimate relationship with deception. Second, Trump’s pressure on Russia is working. If it weren’t, Putin wouldn’t be making such a huge deal over a battle the outcome of which will not fundamentally alter the trajectory of this war.