President Donald Trump announced an uneasy trade truce with China last week, but experts argue that Washington will need the support of the European Union if it is to hold.
While the eyes of the world focused on the direct interactions between Washington and Beijing during trade negotiations, the true outcome lies in the actions of the rest of the world. Among the key markets is the EU, which has sought to play a balancing act between Washington and Beijing — much to the former’s ire. For the latest trade truce between the U.S. and China to hold, some experts believe that the 27-nation bloc will need to choose a side.
Michael Lucci, founder and CEO of State Armor, a think tank focused on countering China’s influence on the global stage, argued that Europe will be a key player in determining whether the U.S. can hold its ground against Beijing’s encroaching influence.
“President Trump and the United States are doing their part to bring accountability to China, but the task of building supply chains outside their coercion is not only for America alone,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The rest of the free world, particularly our European allies, should recognize China as an adversary in the same way that China views the West as an adversary. That means adequately protecting critical infrastructure, and pursuing policies of building resilient supply chains controlled by free nations — not the CCP.”
“The CCP will stop at nothing to achieve their stated goal of displacing the United States on the world stage. A world dominated by an authoritarian communist regime is not a world that anyone wants to live in,” Lucci added.
He praised Trump’s taking of “substantial steps” to break U.S. dependence on Chinese critical mineral production and maneuvers to “lead the free world in building new supply chains outside of Communist China’s broad range of coercion.”
John Czwartacki, Co-Founder of Public Policy Solutions, made a similar argument, stating that European posturing toward China harms not only the U.S. but also itself.
“Europe’s acquiescence of China’s economic aggression is both bad for their own security and undermines their relationship with the United States,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Now that President Trump has given our allies breathing room by bringing the impending trade war to a pause, they should take this opportunity to recalibrate their punitive posture toward American companies and embrace a partnership that is mutually beneficial ahead of the next phase of negotiations.”
The U.S. is the EU’s largest customer by a significant margin, accounting for one-fifth of all imports of its products. The same isn’t true vice versa, however, with the bloc importing far more Chinese goods than American.
China particularly dominates several industries key to European national security, including steel, pharmaceuticals, tech, and telecommunications. Roughly 37% of all European steel imports in 2024 came from China.
Germany, the economic heavyweight of the European Union EU), has nearly doubled its imports from China over the past decade, increasing from $103 billion in 2015 to a peak of $208 billion in 2022. Over the same period, imports from the U.S. have stagnated, making up just $75 billion in 2024.
This trade imbalance has been a major source of tension between Trump and the EU during his second term, with recent trade negotiations focusing on rectifying the issue.
As part of the recent U.S.-China trade truce, the two countries will renew the agreement annually. Trump expressed confidence that the “deal will go on for a long time.”
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The deal left major ambiguities, such as the U.S. purchase of TikTok, whether China will follow through with purchasing U.S. soybeans, and whether Chinese critical mineral exports will continue after a year.
The stance of key U.S. allies like the EU is likely to be one of the decisive factors in how the playing field looks next year when negotiators look to renew the agreement.