The last poll of New Jersey voters suggests that Democrat Mikie Sherrill will win a commanding victory over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in today’s gubernatorial election.
The John Zogby Strategies survey, completed yesterday afternoon, has Sherrill with 55% to 43.4% for Ciattarelli. Another 1.6% chose minor party candidates.
Pollster John Zogby, who partners with Washington Secrets for the weekly White House Report Card, told us that in addition to partisan voters, Sherrill is winning a majority of independent voters.
“Sherrill holds 95% of Democratic voters, while Ciattarelli’s support is strong with 91% of Republicans. Independent voters break for Sherrill on the afternoon before the election – 54% to Ciattarelli’s 42%,” said the polling analysis.
The election is one of a few on Tuesday that are considered a judgment on President Donald Trump’s first year in office. Virginia is also hosting a gubernatorial election, and the Democratic candidate, Abigail Spanberger, is leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in most polling.
Trump has been a topic hanging over both elections, and they come as other polling is indicating a drop in support for the president, who recently has shifted his focus from domestic issues to foreign policy.
Key points from Zogby’s survey:
— The gender gap: Sherrill has a 27-point lead among women voters, 63% to 36%. Ciattarelli leads among men, 52% to 47%.
— Married vs. non-married voters: Ciattarelli leads married New Jersey voters 51% to 48%, which is an underperformance for a Republican candidate, while Sherrill commands those not married (single, divorced, widowed, other) 58% to 37%.
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— First-time voters in a New Jersey gubernatorial election prefer Sherrill, giving her a lead of 64% to 34%.
— Ciattarelli leads among white voters 51% – 48%.
“In the final analysis, while Ciattarelli mobilizes conservatives, men, white voters, and rural voters, Mikie Sherrill appears to have excited liberals, women, all age groups (especially those under 45), first-time voters, and independent voters — leaving her with a significant lead as we go into Election Day,” said the analysis.