Former President Barack Obama is making the New Jersey governor’s race a fresh test of his electoral influence as Democrats seek to keep Republicans from gaining a foothold in a traditionally blue state.
Obama is lending his voice to radio and digital ads supporting Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), the Democratic nominee for governor. Sherrill holds a lead over Jack Ciattarelli, her GOP opponent, but the state has begun to trend to the right and has a track record of periodically electing Republicans.
In recent weeks, Obama has returned to the political spotlight, cutting commercials, sitting for interviews, and generally criticizing Republicans and urging his party to moderate its tone. The New Jersey endorsement, in particular, has added another layer to that foray back into politics. Not only is Obama getting involved, but so is President Donald Trump, making the contest a proxy battle that will test the enduring sway of a current and former president.
Some strategists are skeptical that Obama’s endorsement will make-or-break Sherrill’s turnout when New Jersey voters head to the polls on Nov. 4.
Henry de Koninck, a New Jersey strategist and political consultant, told the Washington Examiner he thinks the endorsement will help marginally in areas such as Newark, Trenton, and Camden — areas Sherrill needs to win.
“From a persuasion perspective, it’s not a game-changer in terms of folks who were on the fence one way or another,” he said. “I don’t expect that to move numbers meaningfully.”
The race nonetheless comes at a time when Democrats are losing their hold on a coalition that propelled Obama to two terms in the White House. Trump, aided by a sizable shift in minority support, only lost New Jersey to former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6 points, while Ciattarelli came relatively close the last time he ran for governor.
Other experts, like veteran New York-based strategist Hank Sheinkopf, say Obama could be helpful in bringing African American voters and independents to Sherrill’s side.
“He’s a popular ex-president,” Sheinkopf said.
Obama retakes the spotlight
Obama’s foray into New Jersey, a state he won by 14 points in 2008 and 17 points in 2012, comes as part of a larger focus on races up and down the ballot.
Obama endorsed Sherrill on Friday morning, and he is appearing in digital ads for both her and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), whom he also endorsed in her gubernatorial race against GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. In the ad for Sherrill, her background as a mother, veteran, and federal prosecutor is highlighted — three areas that have served as the focal point for her campaign.
The former president has also gotten involved in the redistricting battle in California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is asking voters to allow maps to be redrawn to counter Texas’s efforts to protect Republicans’ margins in the House.
Separately, Obama has been accepting more interviews, whether it’s with seasoned journalists or popular influencers.
In one podcast appearance, Obama praised up-and-coming young candidates such as James Talarico, who is running for the Democratic nomination in Texas for the Senate seat held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). He hasn’t endorsed Talarico, but said he possesses the qualities that Democrats should be looking for heading into a critical midterm year.
More broadly, he’s been criticizing Trump for his restrictions on the press at the White House and his deployment of the National Guard. He’s also warned his party to abandon its “holier-than-thou” messaging style.
“You can’t constantly lecture people without acknowledging that you’ve got some blind spots, too, and that life’s messy,” Obama said during an interview with comedian Marc Maron.
The former president’s support comes after Democrats faced critical setbacks in the 2024 election, losing the White House and the Senate. Though Harris won New Jersey, Trump made significant inroads in a state he lost in 2020 to former President Joe Biden by nearly 16 points.
Democrats have struggled with intraparty conflicts about how combative they should be with the new administration, as younger activists have enthusiastically demanded changing the old guard and bringing fresh blood to Capitol Hill.
With early voting underway in New Jersey, Democrats are hoping Obama’s endorsement will nudge voters who have either trended toward Trump or remain on the fence about the candidates to turn out for Sherrill.
New Jersey race becomes proxy battle
On the other side, Trump threw his support behind Ciattarelli in May. As the election proves to be competitive, he is amping up his endorsement by holding tele-rallies for the Republican. Trump’s allies also plan to throw millions into a pro-Ciattarelli super PAC.
Sheinkopf, the political strategist, said that he thinks Trump’s endorsement of Ciattarelli will be significant, particularly among Jewish voters following the ceasefire deal the administration helped negotiate between Hamas and Israel.
He predicted the ceasefire, which saw Hamas release the final living Israeli hostages this past week, would boost Ciattarelli in places such as Lakewood Township and Bergen County, the latter of which has one of the largest Jewish populations in New Jersey.
Sheinkopf said the Democratic Party is “questionable” on the conflict, which could benefit Ciattarelli.
De Konick thinks Trump’s endorsement and last-minute support of Ciattarelli could have the opposite effect. Sherrill has spent much of her campaign tying her Republican opponent to Trump and his Make America Great Again base, hoping that poor public opinion of the president’s agenda will drag Ciattarelli down.
The increased support from the president and his allies could turn off independents or persuadable Democrats who want to see daylight between a New Jersey Republican governor and the Trump administration.
De Koninck said he thinks the absence of Trump on the ballot will also be helpful to Sherrill.
“Trump is someone who motivates Democrats very much to come out and vote against him and against people who he’s endorsed,” the strategist said. “He is motivating to Republicans and his supporters to come out and vote for him, but he has not demonstrated the ability to translate that to other candidates.”
“So Trump could be a turnout factor in the election, but not in the way that Republicans are open to seeing,” he added.
Mudslinging helps create a tight race
Sherrill holds a narrow lead over Ciattarelli, but polling ahead of the election shows it could be anyone’s to win.
A Fox News survey released Friday found Sherrill ahead of Ciattarelli by 5 points, down from an 8-point lead in late September. Sherrill’s RealClearPolitics average lead is 4 points after the Fox News poll came out, down slightly from the 4.6-point lead she had prior to its release.
The polling comes as campaign attacks from both sides take their toll on the candidates’ favorability and honesty ratings. Sherrill is viewed as more honest than not, 52% to 47%, while Ciattarelli’s honesty rating is underwater by 2 points.
Both candidates were scrutinized when Sherrill’s military records were released in full to a Ciattarelli ally, including her Social Security number. The release came after the New Jersey Globe reported on a 1994 cheating scandal at the Naval Academy, where Sherrill attended. She is not accused of cheating, but said she was not allowed to walk at graduation because she failed to report her classmates involved in the scandal — a fact that Republicans have latched on to.
Ciattarelli is facing a controversy of his own for a former medical publishing company that he owned. During the October debate, Sherrill claimed the company’s “propaganda” and “misinformation” contributed to thousands of opioid-related deaths and that Ciattarelli “profited” from those deaths.
The Republican has initiated a defamation lawsuit against Sherrill for her comments, saying she “crossed a line and sunk to dangerous levels of unhinged rhetoric.” Sherrill’s campaign has called the lawsuit “desperate.”
When it comes to mudslinging, Sheinkopf thinks Ciattarelli has the advantage, as the ads attacking Ciattarelli “don’t have the same bite” as the ads attacking Sherrill, some of which question her commitment to lowering energy costs.
“They’re much more kind of visceral,” Sheinkopf said of the anti-Sherrill ads. “The same way the electric utility costs are visceral. This is a more visceral kind of campaign, and the question is, who has a greater emotional bite?”
Governor’s race swayed by national politics
The government shutdown in Washington, D.C., seeped into the election after the White House paused funding for the Hudson Tunnel project to connect New Jersey and New York via a tunnel under the Hudson River.
Ciattarelli has aligned mostly with Trump’s agenda and national Republicans’ messaging on the shutdown, stating the frozen project funding is due to Sherrill’s “no” vote on the GOP’s short-term bill to fund the government. Sherrill, in turn, framed the situation as one in which Ciattarelli would never stand up to the Trump administration.
“He will choose Trump over New Jersey every time,” Sherrill said earlier this month.
The New York City mayoral race has also crept into the race. While Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani has said he supports Sherrill’s bid for governor, she has declined to endorse Mamdani.
“Democrats are not performing well because they don’t have a consistent message,” Sheinkopf said. “And the problem for her is that she is also carrying the weight of the national Democratic Party that is in tatters.”
The candidacy and nomination of Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist, have been a thorn in the side of establishment Democrats hoping to turn away from progressive politics and go back to kitchen-table issues. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) has yet to endorse Mamdani, telling reporters Friday he will talk with the nominee “at some point” before early voting begins.
Mamdani’s race puts Sherrill and other Democrats in a tough place, Sheinkopf said.
“Democrats are being taken over by the Left, and that positioning, particularly with Mamdani in New York, makes it more difficult for Democrats to win,” the strategist said. “Every time Mamdani opens his mouth, he elects another Republican.”
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Still, Sheinkopf said the election is wide open for both candidates, and the victor will be the one who successfully appeals to local issues the voters care about, such as high energy costs.
“The polling data is pretty instructive,” Sheinkopf said. “It’s not a walk away by any measure.… It tells you that people are concerned about bread and butter issues, so the less you talk national arguments, the better. The more you talk about localized issues, the higher the probability that you will connect with the voters.”