Having secured a historic ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, President Donald Trump has manifestly done more than anyone else to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize (not that the prize deserves much respect anymore). This agreement to end two years of conflict will mean the release of the last 20 living Israeli hostages held by the terrorists.
In return, Israel will suspend military operations against Hamas in Gaza, gradually withdraw its forces to Gaza’s periphery, and release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. This is one of the ugly but inevitable compromises necessary for peace: some of the Palestinians who will be released are terrorists serving life sentences for murder. It is a painful concession for Israel to free these killers in exchange for innocent victims of kidnapping. But having its unjustly incarcerated citizens return home plainly serves Israeli interests.
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We must never forget that this appalling calamity began when 1,195 people were murdered on Oct. 7, 2023, by a horde of Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other terrorist fighters who invaded southern Israel. They perpetrated an orgy of torture, rape, murder, and kidnapping.
The Israeli military response has killed tens of thousands of Hamas fighters and greatly weakened the terrorist group as a military force capable of seriously threatening Israeli security. Largely due to Hamas’s insistence on using Gazans as human shields, however, tens of thousands of civilians have also been killed in this war. Suffering in Gaza has grown as shortages of food and medicine have worsened, although the charge of genocide leveled against Israel is a manifest falsehood that can only be propagated by those who are ignorant or dishonest. The peace deal should bring an end to Hamas and Gaza’s civilian misery. Hundreds of aid trucks will surge into Gaza over the coming days.
This is not to say that this stage-one agreement finalizes all the outstanding issues.
Once the hostages are released, Hamas must fully disarm, and its members either leave Gaza or accept amnesty in return for repudiating their former organization. Considering the terrorist group’s theologically vested belief that it is on a mission from God to purify the entirety of what constitutes the state of Israel by expelling all Jews from it, it will take robust pressure to compel an end to Hamas’s multi-decade campaign of terrorism. Whatever happens in Gaza, terrorist threats originating in the West Bank will also remain significant.
Trump’s work is far from done.
To successfully implement the second-order parts of this agreement, Trump will have to leverage his diplomatic power very skilfully and sustainably. He’ll have to make clear to Hamas’s friends in Qatar and Turkey that he will support Israeli military action against the terrorist group if it refuses to disarm speedily and verifiably. Any such military action should be centered on ground combat operations rather than air power that causes heavy civilian casualties.
Still, Hamas must know that one way or another, it cannot wiggle out of disarmament. Soon to be bereft of the leverage it has had by holding innocent hostages, Hamas must understand that while Trump will not support unjustified Israeli military action, nor will he force Israel to tolerate Hamas’s deception and any efforts to make itself a threat again. Hamas is probably banking on Trump basking in the limelight of this first-stage agreement, then becoming bored with the conflict and ceasing to pay attention. Trump should make it clear that any effort by Hamas fighters to hide weapons, reorganize under a different name (a favored tactic of Islamic terrorist groups), or join another terrorist group will leave them open to immediate Israeli military destruction.
At the same time, Trump must also recognize that America’s Arab allies are taking him at his word that he will be a fair guarantor for peace. He must push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to pander to or placate some of his hard-line coalition partners in the aftermath of this deal. Ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir did not want a ceasefire. They were forced to accept it and will now put pressure on Netanyahu. These might include declaring unilateral Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank, for example. Although there is a strong case that the territory, Judea and Samaria, is part of Israel under international law, it would end the prospect of peace if Jerusalem were to annex it now. Trump has rightly said he will not allow such action; it would undercut Palestinian aspirations and weaken America’s standing with its Arab allies. U.S. interests and those of peace demand that he stand firm on this.
WHAT THE TIMELINE OF THE GAZA PEACE DEAL LOOKS LIKE
Nevertheless, what we’ve seen over the past 48 hours is nothing short of remarkable. Staking his personal political capital on breaking a seemingly insurmountable deadlock, Trump has cajoled nations and terrorists that hate one another into a new peace.
Difficult days lie ahead, but Trump has earned the gratitude of anyone who genuinely wants peace — no matter what one thinks of the Nobel Peace Prize.