It would be hard for the labor market numbers to be more equal.
Of all employees in America in August, 49.9% were women, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s nonfarm payroll data.
Women’s wages in the past year have grown by 3.6%, compared to 3.5% for men, according to Manhattan Institute economist Allison Schrager.
Schrager makes this conclusion about working women: “Over the long term, the labor market is in their favor. That doesn’t mean the gender pay gap will go away, however. In fact, it may even grow.”
First, she predicts future jobs will be more feminine jobs, as the service and healthcare sectors grow amid an aging population.
Second, Schrager notes that the gender pay gap is due to mothers demanding more flexibility, which comes at the expense of salary, because of trade-offs. She also predicts that higher male unemployment will create a labor market where the smaller number of men are more productive, and thus higher paid. These two dynamics combine to lower women’s pay, the argument goes, because men’s higher salaries will induce their wives to lean out, so to speak, and take that more family-friendly, lower-paying job.
The story’s a bit confusing to follow, but it’s the standard story from economists these days. There’s also reason to suspect it’s wrong, on almost every count.
But is it true that the jobs of the future will be more female-friendly than male-friendly? Won’t hospitals and physicians’ practices reduce their office jobs as artificial intelligence automates clerical work? Won’t corporate “email jobs” be the first to be replaced by ChatGPT?
And won’t actual, physical labor become relatively more in demand until the robots get a lot better? So maybe we are at peak female employment today?
Secondly, it seems that the pay gap is likely to shrink. Schrager is right about the cause of the pay gap: Women aren’t really paid less than men — it’s just that those women with children are apt to take payment in flexibility over payment in more cash.
But Gen Z women are becoming less inclined toward marriage and family. The young generation is more careerist and less family-focused. Also, many just feel that family is out of reach.
So as more young women lean in to work and out of family formation, we have every reason to suspect they’ll become more like men, and give up the life part of work-life balance — and take the money.