Allies of Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) are unleashing millions of dollars in ad money for radio and TV, an influx that appears to have helped shrink state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s once commanding lead in their bitter Texas GOP Senate primary.
More than $5 million has been pumped into advertising on the airwaves in recent months, with reservations that run through August by political groups supporting Cornyn, according to ad spending data provided by a media buyer monitoring the race.
That figure could explode once the campaigns get directly involved ahead of next year’s primary, with candidates receiving cheaper ad rates and both sitting on millions in their campaign coffers.
Most reservations have been in Texas media markets, but a handful have also included New York, Washington, D.C., and West Palm Beach, Florida, home to President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Most of the spending began after July 1 and has come from groups such as Texans for a Conservative Majority and those tied to national Republicans like One Nation.
The spike in pro-Cornyn messaging, much of which touts him as a loyal Trump steward in the Senate, appears to be eating into Paxton’s previously double-digit polling lead over the fourth-term incumbent. Cornyn has increasingly flexed his conservative credentials to fight off Paxton’s criticism that he’s a deal-cutting centrist misrepresenting his alignment with Trump and the MAGA base.
Recent surveys suggest the heated rivalry is nearing a statistical tie or that Paxton maintains a slight lead.
Emerson College, a leading nonpartisan pollster, had the two neck and neck in the primary, with Cornyn at 30% to Paxton’s 29%. Another 37% were undecided. For the general election, Cornyn led Democratic candidate and former congressman Colin Allred 45% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Paxton led Allred by 46% to 41%, with 14% undecided.
Texas Southern University had Paxton at 44%, Cornyn at 39%, and 17% undecided.
The Cornyn campaign attributed the surge in support to Lone Star State voters learning more about the senator’s voting record and recent controversies centered on Paxton, the MAGA firebrand who condemns Cornyn’s alignment with Senate GOP leadership and the establishment wing of the party.
“What we have seen since this race began in April is that as Texas GOP primary voters learn more about Senator Cornyn’s record of voting with President Trump 99% of the time and delivering real conservative results for Texas, we gain support, while Crooked Ken Paxton loses support,” Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak said in a statement. “Meanwhile, Ken Paxton is dealing with a new embarrassing scandal nearly every day, as recent polls show him losing to Colin Allred in a general election in a state Trump strongly won by 13% just eight months ago.”
A recent internal campaign poll from Allred, who lost last year to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) by nearly 9 points, showed Allred leading Paxton by 2 points, 49% to 47%.
The Paxton campaign did not provide a comment for this story.
Just one pro-Paxton group appears to have placed ad buys for radio or TV so far. Preserving Texas PAC spent roughly $50,000 on an ad in May for the West Palm Beach market that assailed Cornyn as a “RINO” and highlighted his vote for a bipartisan gun safety measure in 2022.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX), a potential dark-horse candidate who could join the race, and groups supporting him, such as Hellfire PAC and Standing for Texas, have also pumped around $4 million into pro-Hunt ads for TV and radio this year. The spending is significant for someone not in the race and suggests he’s seriously considering a campaign, though the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, which supports Cornyn, is urging other Republicans to rally around the incumbent.
Neither the Cornyn nor Paxton campaigns appear to have locked in ads for radio or TV, but they or their allies have released digital ads in what has become the most hostile Republican primary of the 2026 cycle and is likely to be one of the most expensive.
JOHN CORNYN FLEXES CONSERVATIVE CREDENTIALS IN BITTER SENATE PRIMARY
Cornyn’s digital ads have centered on claims that Paxton has steered state money toward left-wing groups, committed mortgage fraud, and has questionable morals, in part based on his wife’s filing for divorce.
Pro-Paxton groups like Lone Star Liberty PAC have used digital spots touting his work as Texas attorney general, such as his role in state Republicans redrawing congressional districts that will net five additional GOP lawmakers in Congress to bolster the House’s slim Republican majority.