Conservatives have always been more concerned than liberals about the health of American families. But as fertility sank again in 2024 to an all-time record low of 1.6 births per woman over a lifetime, even liberals have grown concerned that, as a nation, we are not meeting the 2.1 births needed to keep our population from shrinking.
The Washington Post‘s Youyou Zhou recently wrote an article titled, “The two reasons Americans aren’t having babies, according to data.” Long story short, she blames “a broad cultural shift away from traditional families and a lack of high-quality, affordable child care and housing.”
She’s not entirely wrong; high housing costs do lower fertility. But she completely misses the real cause of fertility’s decline.
Zhou correctly notes that, while “the birth rate in the U.S. has been declining for the past two decades … the decline across the country is uneven.” She then identifies the four counties that have the nation’s highest fertility rates and tries to piece together a narrative. She gets so close to seeing the truth, but ultimately fails.
She starts off in Onslow County, North Carolina, which has almost double the fertility rate of the rest of the nation. The county is 69% white, 11% black, and 14% Hispanic. It is not an especially religious area, and while it is an inexpensive place to live, there are cheaper places in the United States.
However, Zhou does note that Onslow County has two Marine bases and “46% of students in the Onslow County public school system were from a military family in the 2023-2024 school year.” That is astronomically high. Zhou then asserts that the reason the Marine bases are conducive to fertility is because “military families are eligible for federal child care subsidies.” It is true that military families are eligible for child care subsidies. But in such a low-cost area, are the child care subsidies really driving the baby boom? And is child care the only subsidy the military offers families? Hold that thought.
Zhou next groups Utah County, Utah; Rockland County, New York; and Ector County, Texas, together, saying religion drives the baby boom in these communities. And for Utah County, where 89% of residents are Mormon, and Rockland County, where 65% of residents are Orthodox Jews, that makes sense. People who regularly attend church are more likely to have more children.
But Ector County is only slightly more religiously observant than normal. It’s unique because it’s home to Odessa, Texas, the regional hub of the nation’s largest oil and gas production. What is driving the baby boom in Ector County isn’t church attendance; it’s high-paying jobs in the predominantly male oil and gas business.
So what ties Onslow, Utah, Rockland, and Ector counties together? What makes them stand out? What does Zhou never mention once in her entire article?
Marriage.
Religious communities have far higher marriage rates than secular ones. Married women have far more babies than single women. And communities with high-paying male jobs have far more marriages than communities with high male unemployment.
But what about Onslow County? What ties those Marine bases to Utah and Rockland counties’ religion and Ector County’s booming male job market? Well, since the draft ended in 1973, the military has made a deliberate effort to create a culture of marriage among its members. Married service members receive a higher housing allowance than single members, and the married bonus is even higher if they have children. Married service members get extra pay when deployed for extended periods, and married couples receive priority for family housing on bases. Spouses of service members get quality healthcare benefits and life insurance, too.
WHY BLUE STATE CITIES ARE FAILING
As a result of these public policies, the marriage rate is much higher among the military than among the civilian population. Just 20% of the general population in the prime baby-making years of 18-29 years old are married. In 1960, it was just 60%. However, among the military, half of all service members and two-thirds of all officers are married.
The lesson of Onslow, Ector, Utah, and Rockland counties is that public policy can increase fertility. But not by subsidizing day care. If the government makes it easier for young men and women to get and stay married, then babies will come.