Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s early advantage over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the state’s primary battle is rapidly shrinking, according to a new poll.
Paxton is challenging Cornyn from the right ahead of the 2026 primary. The attorney general has enjoyed a commanding polling lead over Cornyn for months amid conservatives’ dissatisfaction with the incumbent senator.
However, the latest polling from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Cornyn is starting to erase Paxton’s advantage. The attorney general holds only a 5-point lead, down from the 9-point margin he had over Cornyn in a poll published by the same group in May.
The poll spells good news for the Cornyn campaign, which has fought to fend off criticism that the incumbent lawmaker lacks conservative credentials, and has been backed by powerful establishment GOP groups such as the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund.
Still, some Republican operatives in Texas have raised fears that neither Cornyn nor Paxton will be able to fend off a Democratic challenger during the general election.
Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) has emerged as a possible third candidate for Republicans eyeing a stronger option to defeat Democrats, but he has not yet declared a campaign.
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The 5-point gap between Paxton and Cornyn remains the same in a hypothetical three-way race with Hunt, according to the latest poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 6 to 12 among 1,500 likely Texas Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 2.53%.