White House talks between President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and major European leaders went well on Monday. The president must now translate positive rhetoric into verifiable progress toward peace in Ukraine.
His diplomatic agenda is a noble one. Russian President Vladimir Putin began this war, the bloodiest and biggest in Europe since 1945, more than 3 1/2 years ago. He launched an unprovoked invasion that has now killed hundreds of thousands of men, women, and children. Trump’s meeting with Putin in Alaska last Friday generated uncertain results, but discussions on Monday advanced at least two points of opportunity.
First, Trump emphasized his openness to direct U.S. support for Western security guarantees for Ukraine. This is new. Such guarantees would take effect if a peace accord were to be reached. As Tom Rogan noted, “The U.K. and France have said they will spearhead any guardrail force, [but] U.S. involvement is also vital.” That’s because Russia will not be deterred by any force that lacks allied resolve. Without a guarantee that the United States would come to the aid of allies if they were attacked, any deal would have two fatal flaws. First, it would make it difficult for Ukraine to have any confidence that other security guarantees are worth the paper they would be written on. British and French troops could be withdrawn, and Putin could return to conquest, rearmed and resupplied during whatever period of post-sanctions peace he decided that he needed. Only America is a credible deterrent.
Trump and Zelensky also said they want a trilateral summit with Putin soon. European leaders at the White House were notably more skeptical about this, suggesting a ceasefire would be necessary before any credible trilateral talks could take place. They reasonably fear that Putin would use a summit to buy more time in which to continue his war.
Still, Putin has until now refused trilateral talks. If he persists despite collective Western support for Ukraine, Trump will have abundant cause to impose devastating sanctions on Russia. If Trump were to target the Russian central bank’s access to foreign capital, and to impose tariffs on all of Russia’s energy export partners — China, Turkey, and not, as now only India — Putin’s revenue flow would evaporate, and his struggling domestic economy would be thrown into deep peril. If Putin accepts a trilateral summit but prevents it from succeeding, Trump could likewise impose sanctions.
Trump must recognize and never forget Putin’s true nature. He is a thoroughbred KGB liar. He could have suggested concessions last Friday at his meeting in Alaska with Trump. The Russian foreign ministry also backtracked on Monday from the idea that Putin had suggested openness to Western peacekeepers supporting a postwar Ukrainian security guarantee. If Putin backtracks on a trilateral summit or simply stalls, Trump must punish him for it. The alternative would be to give Putin the strategic initiative. Trump would weaken America’s prestige and diplomatic power, its credibility with allies, and his much-coveted image as a strong leader.
Trump should recall that Putin and his officials lied until the day of the invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, saying they had no plans to attack Ukraine. They did so even after the U.S. and the United Kingdom had clear intelligence reporting showing Russia’s invasion plan. As first reported by the Washington Examiner before the war began, that invasion plan was comprehensive in scale and unequivocal in its ambition to conquer Ukraine entirely.
FIVE THINGS THE EUROPEANS ARE ASKING OF TRUMP
Momentum toward peace is real. The positive tone between Trump and Putin, and Trump and Zelensky, is welcome. But the devil lurks, as ever, in the details.
Trump must hold Putin to specific, timely actions to secure peace.