The National Republican Senatorial Committee is pushing donors to rally behind Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), arguing in an internal memo that Attorney General Ken Paxton is losing his polling advantage in Texas’s high-stakes Senate primary.
The Aug. 15 memo, obtained by the Washington Examiner and reported by Politico, declared that Cornyn “will win Texas” and that the campaign to ensure that outcome “is already in motion and delivering results.” It pointed to a six-week super PAC advertising blitz highlighting Cornyn’s conservative record and alignment with President Donald Trump.
According to the NRSC, the ads have begun to force Paxton on the defensive in polling, with his “mile wide and inch deep” support eroding as voters focus on his legal and ethical controversies.
The committee highlighted a new Emerson College poll showing the race in a statistical dead heat: Cornyn at 30%, Paxton at 29%, and 37% undecided. It also noted that this is the first public survey to factor in Paxton’s wife divorcing him on biblical grounds, a development the NRSC says “breaks his streak of inflated leads.”
The memo predicted that “by late fall, the landscape will be dramatically different as this trend line continues.” Until now, polls have generally shown that Paxton has a decided lead over Cornyn. A separate presentation by the Senate Leadership Fund showed Paxton leading Cornyn by an average of 17 points across 13 polls conducted between January and June.
Paxton’s campaign dismissed the findings, saying, “We don’t ride the ups and downs of polling. It’s been well documented that AG Paxton is leading by double digits in a dozen polls,” a spokesman for Paxton said in response to an inquiry by the Washington Examiner.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on charges ranging from bribery to abuse of office, but was acquitted in the state Senate after a highly charged trial. Republicans who opposed him have long assumed that controversy would weigh him down with voters.
NRSC strategists contended the new poll reinforces their long-running argument that Paxton’s backing is overstated and unstable. “The underlying data in this race tells a very different story than the string of polls promoted by Cornyn’s opponents,” the document stated, arguing that Paxton’s negatives are not “baked in” from his impeachment but will deepen as voters learn more.
Cornyn’s standing improves when Republicans are reminded of his conservative record and ties to Trump, the NRSC said its internal data shows, while Paxton’s numbers fall once voters are exposed to his legal and personal controversies. His net favorability drops nearly 20 points overall and plunges among women, according to the memo, and in those conditions, Cornyn holds a double-digit advantage, 48% to 38%.
Beyond the head-to-head numbers, the committee pointed to a lopsided financial picture. Cornyn and his allies reported $19.4 million in cash on hand through the second quarter, compared with $4.35 million for Paxton. With 20 separate media markets, Texas remains one of the most expensive states to run a statewide campaign.
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The memo warned that nominating Paxton would be a gift to Democrats, stating that his nomination would “hand Democrats an opening to flip Texas and cause Republicans to divert hundreds of millions of dollars that would otherwise be spent winning key battlegrounds.”
An endorsement from Trump looms as the wild card. Cornyn and Paxton are both actively courting him, and the Emerson poll finds his support could be decisive for voters who have not yet made up their minds.