Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is mounting one of his most aggressive recruitment drives in years, landing marquee candidates in tough states as Democrats sense a shift in the political environment.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper are both launching bids that would give Democrats well-known contenders in states where Republicans had been confident about holding their ground.
In Maine, Gov. Janet Mills is still weighing a run against Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) that could add another high-profile contender to the Democratic roster.
“Susan Collins is in a weaker position now than at any point in her career,” said a Democratic strategist working in Maine. The strategist said her liabilities include voting to confirm two of President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominees, who would overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 and end a federal right to an abortion.
Polling underscores that vulnerability. Collins’s favorability has dropped from 13 points above water in early 2019 to 16 points underwater in the second quarter of 2025, according to Morning Consult. A WGME survey earlier this year found that 71% of Mainers do not believe she deserves another term.
Party strategists say these recruits are part of a broader effort to keep Republicans on defense, even in a year when the Senate map is stacked heavily against them.
“We’re in a much stronger position than at the start of the year,” said a Democratic official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, pointing to backlash over President Donald Trump’s agenda, GOP recruitment failures, and high-profile Republicans such as Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu passing on runs.
“It’s a clear contrast, we’re landing big recruits while they’re losing theirs,” the person added.
But Democrats also confront the uphill battle of a map where all but two of the 22 Republican seats up for election are in states that Trump carried by at least 10 percentage points in 2024. Retirements in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have opened up competitive seats, and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is up for reelection in a key swing state.
Some are testing “out-of-the-box” plays in deep-red territory, places such as Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, and even Iowa, where the field to challenge Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) grew to five candidates this week. In Alaska, Schumer is attempting to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) to run for Senate next year, Axios reported. Peltola is one of only two Democrats to win a statewide election in Alaska this century. The hope is that a strong candidate paired with GOP infighting or a bad national climate for Republicans could create upsets.
Democrats also hope bruising Republican primary battles will create openings. In Texas, longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) faces a high-profile challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, a favorite in MAGA circles. In Georgia, a primary between Reps. Mike Collins (R-GA), Buddy Carter (R-GA), and former college football coach Derek Dooley are already heating up.
“From nasty, expensive primaries to a string of embarrassing recruitment failures and a toxic agenda, Senate Republicans are falling apart at the seams,” Maeve Coyle, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. “Their disastrous start to the year puts their majority at risk while Senate Democrats are in a strong position to win seats in 2026.”
Josh Marcus-Black, a Democratic strategist who has worked for Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), said the overall recruitment picture is breaking in Democrats’ favor.
“You have major governors on the Republican side that are passing on runs, while you see the best possible recruits coming in, in North Carolina, in Ohio, in Texas, in Iowa, etc., which is going to lay out the path to the majority,” he said.
Even as they look for opportunities, Democrats face tough primaries, most notably in Michigan, where former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), backed by Trump, has cleared his party’s field. Democrats are headed for a competitive three-way race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan have emerged as the leading contenders for the Democratic Senate nomination.
Marcus-Black said he isn’t worried.
“We’ve already beat Mike Rogers, who’s going to be running in an even less favorable environment now,” he said, predicting that Democratic nominees in Michigan and Minnesota will be “really strong candidates” despite intraparty competition.
Republicans frame Schumer’s recruitment push as a sign of vulnerability, not strength. Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), now chairman of the Senate Leadership Fund, dismissed the Ohio race in particular, saying, “Sherrod Brown has spent his entire career collecting a government paycheck, and now just eight months into retirement and after a date night with Chuck Schumer, he’s begging taxpayers for more.”
GOP strategist Dennis Lennox argued that Democrats are overselling their chances.
“Nobody who isn’t being paid to say Ohio is competitive thinks Ohio will be competitive,” he said, adding that if it were, “it’s going to be a wipeout for Republicans in both chambers.”
Lennox suggested the real goal is to force Republicans to burn resources in places like Ohio and Texas, where a Paxton nomination could require as much as $200 million to defend, rather than using that money to flip Georgia or pick up Michigan.
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As for North Carolina, Lennox said the state is “always close” and more politically akin to Virginia than other parts of the South. Lennox also noted that Republican candidate and RNC chairman Michael Whatley’s greatest asset is that “nobody knows him,” but warned that his lack of name recognition could become a liability if Democrats define him first.
With over a year until Election Day, both parties are gambling that their recruitment strategies will help define the 2026 Senate battlefield. For Democrats, the task is transforming a few marquee candidates into a credible path to the majority. For Republicans, it’s holding that line while contending with expensive primaries and unpredictable nominees.