If there is anything of note to come from the row on Capitol Hill over the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, it is that cynicism toward politicians is justified.
For Republicans, this saga was a self-inflicted wound. For years, a faction of the GOP had demanded the release of the files, cheered on by a voter base that fervently believes the files contain damning information about some of the most prominent and powerful people in the world.
Now, with President Donald Trump pushing back on the release of the files, calling them a hoax, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives chose to start their recess early rather than vote on a bill that would call on the Department of Justice to release the files.
For Democrats, it’s a different story. In fact, most Democrats in Congress had not said a word about Epstein or the FBI case files until it became clear that the problem was posing a political liability for Trump. The party is now demanding the release of said files, less than a year after it controlled the executive branch and could have easily done so. In the meantime, the party’s own base has become convinced the only reason the files have not been released is because of Trump’s decades-old ties to Epstein.
In other words, each party has decided that the Epstein files only matter insofar as the back and forth on their release hurts the other side. Most Republicans in Congress don’t want to vote on their release because it’ll hurt their relationship with Trump’s electoral machine. Democrats think that this is a political vulnerability that will finally break Trump’s grip over half of the country and help them chart a path back to power in Washington, D.C.
Except it won’t.
The difficulty for all involved is that, ultimately, the Epstein files were always a nothingburger. The fact that they garnered so much attention and hype was largely the fault of several prominent people within the Trump administration, as well as a cadre of conservative social media influencers who dutifully obliged the White House and Attorney General Pam Bondi with a ridiculous photo op showcasing binders of newly released “Epstein files” that were full of information that had already been made public.
According to a memorandum from the FBI released last month, the files themselves mostly contain photographic evidence of Epstein’s horrific sex crimes, much of which cannot ever be released publicly. Furthermore, because these documents were part of criminal proceedings, they were sealed by court order, which prevents them from being released in the first place. The release of any other evidence that names individuals who were associated with Epstein raises due process issues precisely because none of them have been charged with a crime.
The primary problem is that Bondi and others fed the narrative that there was a “client list” of all the powerful people who had engaged in pedophilia alongside Epstein sitting on her desk that she was reviewing and would soon release. At the same time, FBI Director Kash Patel had promised to release files relating to the Epstein case during his Senate confirmation hearing, raising expectations that there would be some sort of bombshell revelation that would lead to swift justice against pedophiles throughout the political elite. With expectations raised so high, suddenly saying that such documents did not exist reeked of a cover-up.
But what reeks of a cover-up can easily be explained by incompetence and big mouths.
It is difficult to believe that if such documentation did exist, it would not have leaked already. According to multiple reports, Trump has been told that his name is in the files, and given the great lengths that the Biden Department of Justice went to prosecute him, one would figure that if such information was actually incriminating, it would have already leaked or found its way into an indictment document.
For all its play in the media and now in Congress, the Epstein files drama is largely a construction of social media, and the ill-advised promises of Bondi and Patel. While the age of technology has opened many doors of information, it has also provided a greater megaphone for those who say the things that people want to hear, even if the evidence for it is thin. People want to believe that the problems in their government and institutions are the result of the actions of a cabal of evil pedophiles who get away with things because they are powerful, when in reality the failures of those institutions are more simply explained by the fact that the people who led them are themselves incompetent.
In turn, by inviting a group of social media stars to pose with binders full of outdated information, the administration validated those megaphones with a photo-op. Unsurprisingly, the individuals who participated in said photo op have (with a couple of exceptions) largely kept quiet about the whole matter.
The White House, led by Trump, has, for its part, attempted to rectify some of these missteps by seeking court permission to release sealed grand jury material that would allow more information about the case to be made public. And while the initial motion failed, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche has now turned to conducting new jailhouse interviews with Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, in the hopes that she will be able to provide new information that can be released publicly.
As a political matter, the Epstein drama will be long forgotten by the time the midterm election campaign season revs up a year from now. Voter attention spans are short, and the news cycle tends not to chase fads for longer than a few days or weeks. And the evidence is already there that the Epstein saga is fading from the public consciousness, even as the House stares down a likely unavoidable vote on the matter next month.
According to CNN’s public opinion guru Harry Enten, Google searches for Epstein are already down 90%, while Trump’s approval ratings have barely dipped in response to what was at one point considered his first real political vulnerability with his base.
In other words, regardless of what happens with the House vote next month, the Epstein files are going to be long forgotten by the time voters head to the polls next year, which, for Democrats, is pretty bad news. The party is still trying to recover its public image after it was defeated in last year’s presidential election and was shut out of power for the first time since winning the House of Representatives in 2018. The Epstein saga, in recent weeks, became one of its most prominent public rallying cries in the mistaken belief that it would help shift some of the voters the party lost to the GOP last year back into its column.
Trump knew before anyone that the files were a political distraction from the real and tangible policy agenda that his administration is enacting, and sought to pivot the conversation away from it as quickly as possible. Some might call this a diversion strategy from a political vulnerability. But even if he doesn’t succeed in shifting the political spotlight right away, the public was always going to follow him on the matter because, ultimately, people don’t vote based on whether or not FBI files in one particular case are released to the public.
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Rather, people vote based on the real and tangible experiences of their daily lives: whether they feel safe in their communities, or if they can afford to put a roof over their head and food on the table, because the realities of everyday life make the debate over whether these pieces of paper in filing cabinets at the FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C. feel very far away.
And it doesn’t take a poll to figure out that they are right.