Texas is asserting its role leading up to the 2026 midterm cycle, as the Republican Senate primary heats up, and the state legislature begins a rare redistricting process to draw out Democratic seats.
Just months after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced a primary bid against incumbent senior Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the state legislature began the process to redraw congressional districts in the state, an effort backed by the Trump administration. All of this comes as the state suffered devastating flooding that occurred in Kerr County on July 4, which resulted in over 100 deaths and billions of dollars in damage.
“Texas will be an even bigger than Texas-sized presence in 2026,” one Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner.
With President Donald Trump off the ballot, Democrats are hoping to flip the House while also fighting an uphill battle to win back the Senate. Since the party’s major loss in November 2024, Democrats have been searching for messaging that sticks with voters as Republicans maintain a trifecta in Washington.
Texas has led the news in many aspects as the midterm elections inch closer, returning to the spotlight after an uneventful last two cycles in the state.
“I think Texas is reclaiming the political spotlight, which it lost to Florida during the pandemic,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. “Florida held sort of the center of the political universe, at least on the Republican side of the aisle, through last year’s election, because we had a Republican presidential contest between two Florida men.”
The primary between Paxton and Cornyn is shaping up to be aggressive and extremely high-stakes. Early polling has shown Paxton in the lead, but Cornyn has an advantage due to his massive war chest. The longtime Texas senator raised $3.9 million during the second quarter of 2025, and the campaign had $8.5 million in cash on hand as of last month.
“I don’t see a scenario in which Ken Paxton is the Republican Senatorial nominee and gets across the finish line in Texas without $200 million being spent on his behalf,” Lennox said.
As Republicans have two major seats to defend — North Carolina and Maine — and try to pick up seats in other swing states, some Republicans have expressed concern that an expensive GOP primary in a red state would take away cash from those considered a toss-up.
“It’s like the marquee Senate race that the party in power would prefer not be a marquee Senate race,” the Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner. “If John Cornyn was running unopposed, he would have a glide path. He is out of favor with a lot of portions of the MAGA world, the base in his own state does not seem to trust him. They think he’s too much in the center, too much of an institutionalist, too much of a deal maker, which he is, that though he is a conservative legislator.”
For his part, Paxton is staking his candidacy on the perception that Cornyn is not sufficiently loyal to Trump. Cornyn emphasized his support for the president in his own campaign launch last month but argued in 2023 that the party should move on from Trump. Cornyn, while being a traditional conservative, has at times shown a willingness to work across the aisle. Paxton, while scandal-ridden, aligns himself with the far-right end of the party and MAGA world.
“I don’t think anybody with any credibility can say that Texas wouldn’t be in play if Ken Paxton is the Senate nominee,” Lennox later added.
Aside from the fiery Senate race, Texas Republicans released their proposed congressional map Wednesday, aiming to wipe out Democratic districts and to help build the House GOP’s razor-slim majority.
The redistricting effort would create 30 Republican congressional seats, compared to just eight Democratic districts, a five-seat boost for the GOP from its current 25 Republican and 13 Democratic seat breakdown.
“Bottom line: it’s clear what Republicans’ strategy is here,” wrote Dave Wasserman, a redistricting expert and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report. “Create as many solid Trump seats as possible while *increasing* the number of Hispanic-majority seats by population, even though Hispanic *voters* will be well south of 40% of the electorate in several of them.”
The new congressional map, which has yet to be finalized, puts Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez in redder districts. It also puts various incumbent Democrats at risk by redrawing or merging their current districts, including Reps. Al Green, Julie Johnson, Marc Veasey, and Greg Casar.
“Texas Republicans are ruthless,” the Democratic strategist said of the redistricting effort. “I wish that Democrats had half the ruthlessness of Texas Republicans.”
While this effort could help Republicans pick up seats in a year when, historically, the House flips to the party opposite the White House in the midterm elections, it could also pull red votes from other red districts, putting previously safe GOP seats at risk in wave elections.
“You know the most likely scenario is one of two things, either this midterm redistricting in Texas keeps the Republican majority, or it turns into a dummymander and blows up in the face of Republicans and allows Democrats to defy the map and win,” Lennox said.
DEMOCRATS REBUKE TRUMP-BACKED REDISTRICTING MAP IN TEXAS TO CUT OUT BLUE SEATS
As both House and Senate races in the state shape out to be high-stakes, the floods that ripped through part of the state could affect how voters feel as they head to the polls. The areas affected have a long pathway ahead of recovery, reverberating throughout the state.
“If the grief and sadness and anger translates into government being held responsible, and that’s going to be Republican legislators and decision makers being held responsible for their abject failures,” the Democratic strategist said.