Just days after Chinese fighter jets caused near-collisions with Japanese intelligence aircraft over the Pacific, Japan’s defense ministry released a report identifying rising Chinese aggression as “the most severe and complex security” threat Japan has faced since 1945.
“China’s external posture, military activities, and other activities are a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community and present an unprecedented strategic challenge,” the report reads, adding that “Japan should respond with its comprehensive national power and in cooperation and collaboration with its ally, like-minded countries, and others.”
In addition to China’s harassment of Japanese planes, the report notes that Chinese naval activity off the coast of southwestern Japan has tripled in the past three years. Russia has also engaged in joint naval exercises with China, which have included Russian instruction of the Chinese on how to combat U.S. and Japanese submarines. China’s territorial claims over the South China Sea threaten Japan because major international sea lanes funnel through those waters.
“The existing order of world peace is being seriously challenged,” Defense Minister Gen Nakatani writes in the 34-page document. “The global balance of power is shifting dramatically and competition among states continues. In particular, the inter-state competition between the United States and China is likely to intensify even further in the future.”
Japan’s clear-eyed and frank assessment of the growing threat China poses to international stability is welcome and contrasts starkly with Europe’s failure to recognize the danger posed by the Chinese Communist Party’s global ambitions.
Japan’s actions have yet to match its acknowledgment of the Chinese threat. Tokyo is set to spend only 2% of its gross domestic product on defense by 2027. NATO member nations have agreed to spend 5%, including 3.5% on core military expenditures such as personnel, equipment, and maintenance, and another 1.5% on defense-related investments such as cyber‑security, infrastructure, and logistics. There is serious doubt that all NATO members will keep this promise without fudging the numbers, but the official agreement is a start. Japan should make a similar commitment.
Earlier this year, Adm. Samuel Paparo, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, issued a similar warning focusing on growing cooperation between Russia and China in the region.
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“China continues to pursue unprecedented military modernization and increasingly aggressive behavior that threatens the U.S. homeland, our allies, and our partners,” Paparo said. “Together, these countries’ growing ties create a complex, interconnected challenge to U.S. national security and regional stability.”
The Trump administration should match China’s increased cooperation with Russia with our own increased engagement with Japan. In addition to closer military cooperation, the Trump administration should end its trade dispute with Tokyo. A promise from Japan to raise defense spending in exchange for tariff relief would be a good addition to any such agreement.