The Congressional Budget Office said the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add some $3.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade.
The new numbers, which came after rulings from the Senate parliamentarian about various provisions and changes to the bill from the House version, represent a $4.5 trillion decrease in tax revenues and a $1.2 trillion cut in spending through 2034.
After the House passed the bill last month, the Senate is now working to pass its version of the law through reconciliation, a legislative process that allows bills to bypass the filibuster and pass with only a simple majority in the Senate.
Late Saturday night, and after hours of tedious negotiations, Senate Republicans voted 51-49 to advance the Republican megabill, beginning an hourslong reading of the bill by Senate staff. After that, there will be up to 20 hours of debate and then a so-called vote-a-rama where senators will weigh proposed amendments.
The majority of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act expands and makes permanent the expiring tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but it also includes other provisions such as funding for border security, spending cuts, and other legislative priorities for President Donald Trump’s second-term agenda.
The CBO also broke down how much each Senate committee’s portion of the legislation would change revenues and spending over the next decade.
The Agriculture Committee’s text would represent $120 billion in spending cuts over the next decade, according to the congressional scorekeeper. The Finance Committee’s legislation includes a trillion dollars in cuts, and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions features $300 billion in spending reductions.
The Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs’s portion of the bill authorizes $129 billion in new spending, and the Armed Services Committee includes $150 billion in new spending, according to the CBO analysis.
The new CBO numbers will be fodder for Democrats who have attacked Republicans for being fiscally irresponsible and adding to the debt. Many Republicans will likely cast doubt on the CBO finding, arguing that it has a poor track record and might not be accurate in its projections.
Some conservatives and the Trump White House are receptive to the argument that an extension of tax cuts should not be deemed an automatic addition to deficits. They believe that the economic growth sparked by the tax cuts and other provisions will offset any deficit hits.
For instance, the Council of Economic Advisers released its latest analysis of the Senate’s reconciliation legislation last week. The agency said the bill would result in a $2.1 to $2.3 trillion deficit reduction over a decade due to the growth sparked by the tax provisions.
The CEA report additionally found that $1.3 trillion to $3.7 trillion in additional offsetting deficit reduction over 10 years was brought on by higher growth from deregulation and energy policies enhanced by the legislation.
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Over the decade, the analysis concluded that there would be $8.5 trillion to $11.1 trillion in total offsetting deficit reduction “from Trump economic policies anchored by the OBBB, including discretionary spending reductions and tariff revenue.”
However, the CEA estimates differ from those of other budget analysts, who have found that the combined tax and spending measures would indeed increase deficits.