New York state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani achieved a surprise victory over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo during New York City‘s Democratic mayoral primary Tuesday through a disciplined campaign that embraced a progressive push to move on from the party’s old guard.
The socialist shocked pundits by emerging as the leading contender in the millennial-versus-baby boomer race, as he defeated Cuomo, the more centrist traditionalist who has spent decades cementing his status in New York’s political scene.
A number of factors culminated in the victory that signaled the Big Apple could be experiencing a political realignment.
Banking on the youth vote
Young progressives form Mamdani’s base, with data from the Manhattan Institute showing that among college graduates aged 18-34, 67% ranked the assemblyman first, compared to just 6% for Cuomo.
That could have spelled disaster for Mamdani’s campaign, as the demographic is less likely to engage in the election process. But he was relentlessly disciplined in targeting the bloc, focusing on issues such as affordability that polls showed were of top importance to them. With data showing that 59% of Mamdani voters named housing costs as their top issue compared to 20% of Cuomo supporters, the socialist lawmaker aggressively promoted policies to freeze rent for subsidized tenants and build 200,000 affordable housing units.
As part of his mission to mobilize young people, Mahmadni released a video on the Thursday before the election urging them to go to the polls.
The strategy paid dividends as early voting surged in the city, fueled by young voters more likely to favor Mamdani.
More than twice as many New York City voters cast their ballots early in person than in 2021, the last time there was a mayoral primary, according to preliminary numbers from the Board of Elections.
Mamdani ended up winning the early vote, drawing a strong performance from young, progressive voters in the “Elite Circles borough,” which includes parts of Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens.
“He put together a great campaign, and he touched young people and inspired them and got them to come out and vote,” Cuomo told disappointed supporters on Tuesday.
The grassroots campaign
The socialist candidate built an army of 46,000 volunteers who knocked on 1.3 million doors, building a movement he touted as “the largest volunteer operation in NYC history.”
And where Cuomo relied on big donors such as former Mayor Michael Bloomberg and major super PACs for support, Mamdani’s grassroots popularity was evident as he raked in 27,000 individual donations, several times the former governor’s total of 6,300.
“He’s funded by the New Yorker, and that makes him loyal to the New Yorkers,” supporter Mohamed Mohamed told The City.
Part of Mamdani’s grassroots appeal was driven by his youthful, charismatic image, strategists said, which contrasted heavily with an aging Cuomo, the establishment favorite.
David Hogg, who was kicked out of Democratic National Committee leadership after disagreements with party elders about strategy, maintained that likability was a key factor was critical factory in Mamdani’s victory.
He is “infectiously and relentlessly positive in a way I have seen few politicians ever be,” Hogg said. “People want something to believe in & for many, Zohran was the first Democrat who gave them that post 2024.”
The contrast between the stability and tradition Cuomo offered versus Mamdani’s unorthodox policies and socialist vision was evident when the two candidates were asked by the New York Times to name their campaign’s “one big idea.”
Cuomo fell back on decades in office.
“Experienced leadership and competent government,” he said. “I know that addressing the challenges facing New York City is not a function of a single ‘big idea,’ but rather rests on the day-in-day-out managerial skill, experience, and knowledge needed to ensure effective execution of the priorities of New Yorkers.”
Mamdani fell forward on an audacious proposal to provide free buses, saying he wanted to provide “economic relief to New Yorkers and create a high-quality public transit system that is safe, reliable and universally accessible.”
In the end, the assemblyman’s strategy paid off.
In districts won by Cuomo, turnout remained relatively consistent with 2021 levels. But in districts where Mamdani won a majority of the vote, turnout surged by an average of 20%, according to the Washington Post. In areas where the assemblyman earned an overwhelming majority, turnout jumped more than 40%.
Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi ironically appeared to foreshadow Mamdani’s victory in remarks ahead of the election.
“The only time far-left extreme candidates win is when there is low turnout,” he told the Gothamist.
The media factor
Mamdani held the advantage of being a media-savvy millennial who appeared singularly cognizant of the benefits of harnessing the internet to spread his message in a race where Cuomo held the power of instant name recognition. While the former governor banked on the support of big labor unions boasting high membership rolls, Mamdani’s active efforts to reach millions of New Yorkers in the streets and on social media produced more tangible results.
The assemblyman’s active presence on social media proved especially valuable in targeting young people, as his campaign released a stream of videos focused on affordability, a top issue for the voting bloc. He made dozens of appearances on podcasts, interviewed New Yorkers in front of Madison Square Garden about the cost of living during a New York Knicks playoff game, and attracted hundreds of thousands of views through just one the video of him jumping into a frigid Atlantic Ocean to highlight his proposals about freezing rent for millions of New Yorkers.
It is a skill that Mamdani’s own critics conceded as valuable.
“I thought I needed more experience, but turns out you just need to make good videos,” state Sen. Jessica Ramos, one of his rivals in the primary, said during a mayoral debate.
“Mr. Mamdani is very good on Twitter, with videos,” Cuomo added during another debate.
The agent of change
Rather than running a negative campaign centered on accusing Cuomo of fomenting regressive policies over his decadeslong career in state politics, Mamdani built out an aspirational movement designed to offer voters hope through the promise of radical change.
Data from a June Manhattan Institute study showed that 61% of all Democrats agreed their home city is on the wrong track. Mamdani portrayed himself as a change candidate seeking to uplift New Yorkers’ broadly pessimistic attitudes about the city’s direction.
MAMDANI WIN PRESSURES DEMOCRATS TO USHER IN CHANGING OF THE GUARD
And he was careful to stay focused on affordability issues in a race in which it could have been easy to target Cuomo over an array of political baggage.
“Cuomo’s path to victory relied on the city sleepwalking through the election,” Morris Katz, a senior strategist for Mamdani, told the New York Times. But Mamdani’s focus on affordability “was uniquely equipped to wake people up.”