The United States might drop its health guidance on limiting alcohol intake to two drinks per day for men and one for women. A message discouraging all alcohol consumption is unlikely to be included in the pending 2025 U.S. Dietary Guidelines, Reuters reports from sources within the Department of Health and Human Services, led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Anti-alcohol advocates have been quick to frame this as a “win” for the beverage lobby, but the truth is more neutral for the industry. Consumers want guidance that defers to the judgment of the individual adult based on their unique health concerns.
It is a welcome surprise that Kennedy went in this direction on alcohol. Kennedy and his boss, President Donald Trump, are both sober. The HHS director has a well-documented history of substance abuse and still attends Alcoholics Anonymous meetings regularly. These stories of personal triumph are inspiring, but often morph into prohibitionist thinking when such individuals enter the world of public policy.
While Kennedy is a bit of a regulatory control freak on added sugars and food coloring, his personal history might be playing the opposite role in how he approaches drug and alcohol policy. Kennedy and the Make America Healthy Again movement he leads embody a more liberal, activist politics regarding health guidance and regulation. Public health and agriculture fit into the horseshoe theory of politics, with MAHA as the meeting point between the granola liberals of yesteryear and rightward momfluencers.
“Consumer choice” is something of a punchline with this coalition, but that’s exactly the spirit of what’s happening with alcohol guidelines — personal responsibility and consulting with one’s doctor versus broad brush statements on men’s and women’s health outcomes related to alcohol.
Is having no drinks per day guidance some kind of government seal of approval for binge drinking? No.
In 1980, the U.S. Dietary Guidelines proposed that Americans drink in moderation, with no numerical figure attached. Revised guidance in 1990 defined “moderate” as having two drinks for men and one for women. Public health advocates have long claimed that the beer, wine, and spirits industry lobbied for the numerical specification.
Now, the same thing is being said about removing the specified amount. It sounds strange because it is. Both outcomes cannot maximally benefit the industry.
It was never true that having two drinks per day is as healthy for me as it is for my neighbor. Whole-body health and thinking of the body as an interconnected system means we must consider exercise, weight, family medical history, and diet when determining how many drinks per day is categorically low-risk.
Adding to the surprise with the Reuters report, the political headwinds have been mounting against alcohol consumption for several years, following the World Health Organization’s pseudoscientific proclamation that “no amount is safe” in terms of cancer risk. This was part of a cascade effect from flawed research published by the Canadian Centre for Substance Abuse and Addiction, funded by Health Canada. Movendi, a global temperance organization, informed CCSA’s inputs.
This all culminated in former President Joe Biden’s outgoing U.S. surgeon general calling for cancer warning labels on alcohol. Last week, the American Medical Association voted in support of such labels on alcohol and non-alcoholic alternatives.
Still, even based on the CCSA’s data, the absolute increase in colorectal cancer risk for a man drinking two drinks daily is 0.0028% — three thousandths of a percent. There’s been an unhelpful conflation in public health discourse between risk and hazard when it comes to alcohol, and the only truly effective message, decade over decade, has been “don’t binge drink.”
Meanwhile, casual drinking is in long-term decline. Younger generations drink less, and alcohol has become less culturally ubiquitous. This makes the sudden regulatory fervor feel increasingly out of step with reality.
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A nuanced recommendation — moderation and the acknowledgment of associated health risks — is exactly what the moment demands. Americans know that alcohol, when abused, is dangerous. What we need now from Washington isn’t more paternalism, but a framework that supports individual agency and healthy habits on everything from diet to exercise. A life of balance provides the most possibility for individual choice, and the government’s role is to inform, not prescribe.
If the 2025–2030 Dietary Guidelines are anything like what’s been reported, it would be a victory for common sense and public health.
Stephen Kent is the media director for the Consumer Choice Center.