WHY IS TRUMP APPROVAL RISING? President Donald Trump‘s job disapproval rating first exceeded his approval rating on March 13. Disapproval of the president then rose steadily for a month, through the previews of coming tariffs and then Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement, on April 2, of huge tariffs he vowed to impose on many of the country’s biggest trading partners.
Trump disapproval hit its highest point on April 28, when 52.4% of those represented in the RealClearPolitics average of polls said they disapproved of the job Trump was doing as president, while just 45.3% said they approved. That meant Trump was 7.1 points underwater.
Now that has changed. Today, Trump is just 1.6 points underwater, with his disapproval down to 49.3% and his approval up to 47.7%. That’s a pretty big shift in a few weeks. Something is happening.
It’s not possible to pinpoint precisely what is behind the move. But it appears that even as criticism of Trump from the usual suspects becomes more shrill, the president’s supporters are sticking with him, joining a substantial number of the independents and former Biden voters who voted for Trump last November.
A new focus group of Wisconsin swing voters conducted for Axios — all the participants voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024 — reported they are “mostly standing by Trump despite reservations.” Yes, there were plenty of reservations. “The speed and scale of Trump’s tariffs aren’t sitting well even with some who agree with the idea of tariffs,” Axios reported. “Some said they don’t like Trump’s treatment of neighboring ally Canada, his incivility and bullying, or his ambiguity about whether he’ll abide by court rulings.”
That is entirely consistent with the kinds of feelings some voters expressed about Trump in the first term. But the story goes on to say that the focus group’s reservations “are mostly outweighed by their faith that Trump’s moves will eventually boost jobs, pay, and fairness for American workers — even if it means paying more now. They also blame Biden and other politicians more than Trump for the current situation.”
Meanwhile, Axios reports that none of them, not one of 12 people in the group, “said they would pick Kamala Harris if they could get a do-over.”
You can speculate about the reasons why Trump’s approval is on the rise. For example, there’s no doubt that some voters worried by Trump’s initial tariff threats are now a bit relieved that he has moderated some of those positions.
Another possible explanation is that there has been a lot of attention lately on the terrible scandal of the Biden administration — the long effort by White House aides to conceal the extent of Biden’s mental and physical infirmities. It didn’t work, of course, because everyone could see the problem with his or her own eyes. But now we’re learning how top Biden officials tried to fool the public. And we’re learning more about just how bad a shape Biden was in and the great risk that posed to the nation. In any event, all the bad news about Biden is, by definition, good news for Trump.
But in the end, it might be easier just to say that the polls show what is not working in the eternal battle over Trump. Lawfare isn’t working, as far as polls are concerned. Hysterical claims — Trump crashed the economy! — aren’t working, as far as polls are concerned. Wild predictions, such as that Trump will destroy democracy, aren’t working, as far as polls are concerned. Americans have heard that kind of stuff about Trump for years now, and a significant portion of them just aren’t listening anymore.