Members of the European Union have joined the United Kingdom in charting tougher paths than the United States toward Russia and Israel.
Let’s start with Russia.
On Tuesday, the EU and the U.K. introduced a new raft of sanctions targeting Russian individuals, energy tanker ships, and financial institutions. The sanctions follow a phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. European leaders had hoped that Putin’s continued refusal to accept Trump’s demand for a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine would lead to U.S. support for new sanctions on Moscow. Instead, Putin further manipulated Trump into the delusion that he seeks a realistic peace accord.
The European powers evidently decided they could no longer wait for Trump to lose faith in Putin. Timed alongside a U.K.-EU trade deal that reverses some trade rules that have been in effect since the U.K.’s January 2020 withdrawal from the EU, the new sanctions signify two things. First is Europe’s desire to weaken Russia before its coming summer offensives in Ukraine. Second, Europe’s desire to broadcast to Trump that it will not support the United States bolstering its ties with Russia at Ukraine’s expense. Put simply, where Trump wants to pursue Russia-Ukraine peace by placating Putin, Europe wants to pursue peace by pressuring Putin.
Europe’s calculation is similar when it comes to Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
On Tuesday, the U.K. and France joined with Canada in threatening Israel with “concrete actions” unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suspends his escalated military operation in Gaza. Other European nations are likely to follow with similar action in the coming days. The U.K. also suspended trade talks with Israel and summoned the Israeli ambassador for talks in a diplomatic rebuke.
The Europeans have recognized Trump’s growing effort to prioritize economic relations with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. They also noted that Israel was left off Trump’s recent Middle East itinerary. In turn, the Europeans correctly sense that Trump is growing frustrated with Netanyahu. Trump wants an end to the bloodshed in Gaza in return for Hamas’s release of Israeli hostages. These developments are critical to securing Saudi Arabia’s joining of the Abraham Accords, a diplomatic prize that Trump is desperate to win amid the slow pace of U.S. diplomacy regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, and a new nuclear deal with Iran.
At the same time, the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, with the Palestinian territory suffering a widespread threat of starvation and heavy shortages of medicines, leads the Europeans to believe that Trump will not push back against their efforts to put pressure on Netanyahu. Indeed, Trump may even welcome that effort as a partner to his own behind-closed-doors pressure.
Still, the European motive here is not wholly centered on humanitarian concerns. The Europeans also know that increasing their public pressure on Israel offers a good way to boost their economic prospects with the Sunni Arab monarchies. The timing of these condemnations is telling. After all, the U.K. is publicly seeking a new trade pact with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The U.K. has especially close relations with Qatar, even operating a joint air force squadron.
PUTIN PLAYS TRUMP FOR AN ДЕБИЛ, REJECTS UKRAINE CEASEFIRE
France has similar economic ambitions. For example, Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund just announced it will open a new subsidiary office in Paris. France and the UAE also held talks last month to further boost economic ties following their February agreement to establish an artificial intelligence data center.
What we see here, then, is the move by Europe to take on a bolder foreign policy stance outside of the traditional U.S. leadership. However, that boldness isn’t necessarily in contradiction to Trump’s agenda. Ultimately, it may even end up serving that agenda.