Conservative deficit hawks in Congress are on an island as House Republicans barrel ahead this week with the “big, beautiful bill” to advance President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda that would saddle more generations with trillions of dollars in debt.
Republicans are looking to pull out all the stops to get the legislation to clear the GOP-controlled House before Memorial Day weekend, including a 1 a.m. committee hearing Wednesday and private meetings between holdouts, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and Trump.
The latest meeting on Monday between House GOP leaders and those resisting the bill over projections that it would add trillions of dollars to the deficit brought more grim prospects for the measure ahead of Trump coming to the Hill on Tuesday to lobby weary Republicans.
“I’m just not sure there’s anything the president can tell me tomorrow that would change my mind at this point,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), House Freedom Caucus chairman. “I’m a hard ‘no’ on it.”
The current proposal, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, that focuses on energy, the border, and taxes, would tack on anywhere from $3.3 trillion to $5.2 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according to the latest analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. The increase stems from extending Trump-era tax cuts during his first term, which are set to expire, and whether lawmakers make them permanent.
The proposal was revived in a late Sunday night vote after suffering a setback last week at the hands of fiscal conservatives who voted it down in the House Budget Committee.
Compounding concerns from deficit hawks about the fiscal health of the United States are factors such as ratings agency Moody’s downgrading the nation’s credit rating, a move that could make it more expensive to borrow money. The government now spends more annually on net interest than on some of its most expensive programs, such as Medicaid and Medicare.
Those in the Senate who regularly raise alarms about the mounting debt, which stands at more than $36 trillion, are intently watching the House’s next moves in the coming days and whether they can slash more spending without losing centrists. Those deficit-minded members include the likes of Sens. John Curtis (R-UT), Mike Lee (R-UT), Rand Paul (R-KY), and Ron Johnson (R-WI).
“The problem with a red line is I’m not quite sure to put it,” Curtis said. “But it’s a good faith effort so that we can go back and look people in the eye and say, ‘We’ve bit the curve.’”
Republican leadership in both chambers faces a delicate balancing act with slim majorities and those ready to buck the bill if steeper cuts include items such as the Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax credits and Medicaid benefits. The emerging talking points from the White House and its surrogates on Capitol Hill have centered on the theory that the megabill will be deficit-neutral or present a surplus thanks to increased economic growth, a claim that is not supported by independent analyses.
“This bill does not add to the deficit,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “In fact, according to the Council of Economic Advisers, this bill will save $1.6 trillion, and the president absolutely understands and hears the concerns of fiscal conservatives and of Americans who want to get our fiscal house in order.”
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), who’s softened his opposition from an outright no to undecided, appeared skeptical of such a claim and how the U.S. would handle a surplus, if it can achieve a feat not seen since fiscal 2001 during the final months of the Clinton administration.
“Let’s say we have a big surplus. Where do you think it’s going to go? Deficit? Can somebody name me when we’ve ever paid anything on the deficit?” Norman said. “If history is a gauge of anything, you know that’s not right.”
THE THREE FACTIONS HOLDING UP TRUMP’S ‘ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), a former House member and fiscal hawk, is helping the White House lobby conservative holdouts. He echoed that economic growth could offset a deficit increase and that the Trump administration inherited poor fiscal policies from the Biden administration, while acknowledging persistent heartburn from some Republicans.
“I get what our fiscal hawks are saying. I’m in that same boat, too,” Mullin said. “It just doesn’t happen overnight.”