A shock outcome in Omaha, Nebraska’s mayoral race on Tuesday night is giving Democrats hope they can regain a foothold in Washington and flip the House.
Democrat John Ewing beat Jean Stothert, the longest-serving incumbent mayor in the country, by tying him to the more unpopular parts of President Donald Trump’s agenda. Ewing, who will be Omaha’s first black mayor, is one of a handful of candidates outperforming nationally for Democrats, offering Republicans a warning beacon for the midterm elections.
In April, Democrat Susan Crawford prevailed in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race that marked an electoral setback for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who poured tens of millions into defeating her. Republicans competing in two safe Florida districts also notched smaller-than-expected special election victories.
Democrats are calling the races a template for next year, crediting a focus on local issues. Ewing emphasized the “chaos” of Trump’s second term, but also rebuffed GOP messaging on transgender politics by saying he was focused on potholes, not “potties.”
“You have one candidate who’s talking about social issues, and then you have another candidate talking about potholes, the person at the local level who talks about potholes is probably gonna win,” House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA) said at a press conference Wednesday.
“So, I think keeping your eye on the ball and making sure that you’re focused on the needs of your constituents is the absolute most important thing you can do, and I think that’s what those successful candidates are doing,” he continued.
Republicans remain confident they can keep the House, with the map currently favoring them despite historical headwinds for the party in power.
“The brilliance of Trump is he’s taking, you know, so much of the limelight, so much of the attention from Congress, that Congress can just get his s*** done, which is great,” Republican strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “It falls to Congress to actually get the s*** done.”
But Democrats believe Trump will ultimately prove to be a drag on the party. His name at the top of the ballot helped cement their control of the House and Senate, but his approval ratings have dropped now that he has retaken the White House.
“Donald Trump is not popular,” Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA), the vice chairman of the House Democratic caucus, told the Washington Examiner.
“In fact, even the least popular president in over 80 years, at [the] 100-day mark, his policies are not popular. Some of them are also lawless. And when Republicans align themselves completely with Donald Trump, then voters get angry and they’re going to start taking them out in elections.”
Fifty percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, compared to the 46% who disapprove.
The Omaha mayoral race, in particular, has implications for the House. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), a centrist who represents Omaha in Congress.
Bacon’s race was one of the most competitive in the 2024 election, but he ultimately came out on top in November to win his fifth term in the seat.
“Last night’s election in Omaha made it clear: in NE-02 and across the country, the momentum is firmly at Democrats’ backs heading into 2026. We will flip NE-02, and Democrats will take back the House majority come 2026,” Katarina Flicker, the House Majority PAC national press secretary, told the Washington Examiner.
Bacon, who is considering whether to retire at the end of his term, credited the long tenure of Stothert for her defeat.
“I’m on my fifth term, you accumulate votes that irritate people. If you’re a 50/50 district, you can’t take a lot of that. It’s reality, it’s part of governing,” Bacon told the Washington Examiner. “I just think she’s a victim of trying to go for her fourth term.”
Although the race will be close — Bacon won by fewer than 2 points — Republicans are ready to fight for his seat.
“He repeatedly outperforms the top of the ticket, proving D.C. elites and their political forecasts wrong. That won’t change and next November, Nebraskans will once again reelect Don Bacon,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Zach Bannon told the Washington Examiner.
Overall, Democrats are on defense in the House, with 39 of their seats rated competitive compared to the 29 marked competitive for the GOP. Yet Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to win back the chamber, which historically flips to the party not in the White House in the midterm elections, as it has for the last five presidencies.
“Structurally, we’ve got a slight advantage. There are more Democrats in Trump districts than there are Republicans in Kamala Harris districts,” David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club for Growth, told the Washington Examiner Wednesday.
“But that falloff factor is big, and the party should pay attention to these early ones as a signal that we can’t rest on our laurels. We’ve got to get ready for the next election,” he continued.
Some Democratic lawmakers could make next year more difficult for House leadership, as some have begun launching bids to either fill vacant seats or challenge fellow Democrats in the Senate. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) announced earlier this year that he is running for the Senate after Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) decided to retire.
House Republicans are giddy about the vacancy in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District, which is rated as “likely Democrat” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, listing it as one of their early targets for the 2026 cycle before Pappas even made his announcement.
Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) are not seeking reelection, opening the door for House Democrats in Michigan and Minnesota, respectively, to try and fill those seats. In Michigan’s case, this could put some districts in play after the state swung for Trump in 2024.
But with Trump’s name absent from the ballot and historically low turnout in midterm elections, Republicans will have a difficult path to flip the seat after Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) entered the Michigan race last month.
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One Democratic strategist told the Washington Examiner that the party will need to have a distinct vision for the party even with Trump off the ballot.
“Donald Trump is not going to win this election for Democrats,” the strategist said. “Democrats have to win it for themselves.”
Naomi Lim, Marisa Schultz, and Rachel Schilke contributed to this article.