Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is playing master manipulator President Vladimir Putin at his own game. The big question: Will the Russian president go to Istanbul?
Zelensky has challenged Russia’s president to personally attend talks with him in the Turkish city on Thursday. Putin first proposed talks between more junior Ukrainian and Russian officials as a counterproposal to President Donald Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire between the countries. While Zelensky accepted the ceasefire proposal nearly two months ago, Putin has refused to do so. But by accepting Putin’s call for talks in Istanbul while insisting they be at the presidential level, Zelensky has outmaneuvered Putin. As I noted on Monday:
“Zelensky has put Putin between a political rock and a Trump hard place. After all, Putin must now choose between looking weak at home by accepting Zelensky’s push for direct talks or risking Trump’s ire by sending a deputy in his place. And if Putin does attend the talks, Zelensky will emphasize to Trump that he’s now ready for an unconditional ceasefire. Putin will then have to choose between joining that ceasefire or risking new sanctions he can ill afford.”
It’s clear the Kremlin has been thrown off balance.
After first intending to send Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to the talks, Russia now says it will not disclose who will attend. However, in stating that Putin has undefined “working meetings” planned for Thursday, the Kremlin is clearly weighing the possibility of his attendance. If Trump attends the talks, as he has said he is open to doing, I think it is probable that Putin will also attend. But he’ll only do so in a very carefully managed fashion.
While Putin will be loath to be seen as traveling to Istanbul in deference to Zelensky’s demands, the Russian leader will fear that refusal to attend will earn Trump’s immediate anger. Putin doesn’t fear this anger per se, but rather what it might lead to. The Russian leader knows that the European Union and the United Kingdom are determined to impose new sanctions on Russia if talks fail. He will also be aware of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) readiness to introduce secondary sanctions via 500% U.S. tariffs on China, India, and Turkey if they continue to purchase Russian energy supplies. Those sanctions would cause extreme revenue strain on Putin’s government and cause another significant blow to the Russian economy, which is increasingly strained under sanctions and inflation. The rumor on Capitol Hill is that Trump has told Graham he will support his sanctions legislation if Putin fails to go to Istanbul.
Of course, what Putin wants from Istanbul is not actually to advance the peace process but rather to manipulate Trump into thinking he is serious about it. If Putin goes to Istanbul, he will engage in various theatrics to assert his dominance over Zelensky. Putin prioritizes his domestic perception as the leader who holds the military cards and moral authority in talks. The appearance of weakness is anathema to Putin’s psyche and that of the Russian people.
Possible Putin antics include focusing heavily on conversations and camera moments with Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but not Zelensky; making Zelensky wait a noticeable amount of time for any meeting, a favored Putin power move; refusing to shake hands with him or directly engage with the Ukrainian leader on perceived equal terms; or a delivery of a long sermon on how Ukraine is the aggressor in the conflict, but Putin wants to support Trump’s ambition for peace. Put simply, expect theatrics.
The former KGB Lieutenant Colonel will also do all he can to outmaneuver Zelensky’s efforts to tie him down on the 30-day ceasefire proposition. Putin does not want to accept the ceasefire because he fears he will lose his military battlefield advantages in the rising summer fighting season, and because he worries that accepting a 30-day ceasefire will lead to Trump’s anger if he then does not extend it beyond those 30 days.
The challenge for Putin is that Trump has made clear he is losing confidence in Putin’s honest engagement. Until now, the Russian leader has skillfully stroked Trump’s ego. Putin’s unquestionable strongman credentials and presentation of national pride also appeal to Trump. Still, Putin’s problem is that his presentation of power in resisting peace now risks crossing Trump’s absolute red line: making Trump himself look weak and incompetent.
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The time is coming when Trump will have to choose whether he or Putin is the strongest leader.
In turn, unless Putin can pull off a true masterpiece of Trump-wooing while doing nothing of significance to advance Trump’s peace agenda, we may see a significant shift in how Trump treats his Russian counterpart. Zelensky will have his fingers crossed that this is an inflection point.